Crossroads

PayPal Monthly: Why is PYPL Stock Flat?

Name: PayPal Monthly: Why is PYPL Stock Flat?
Uploaded: 2025-09-27T15:19:50Z
Description: Roy / Crossroads on X: @kross_roads The content on this channel is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. We do not provide recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any stocks, derivatives, or other investments. Viewers should consult a registered financial advisor bef

9/27/2025, 3:19:50 PM

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Economic Summary

PayPal guided $6–7B in annual free cash flow; management expects a large FCF ramp over the next two quarters which could materially change valuation (ticker: PYPL).
Revenue growth has been weighed down by Braintree contract changes; management expects top-line re-acceleration as those effects abate, potentially lifting TPV.
Offsite advertising is positioned as a high-margin growth lever leveraging PayPal's combined merchant and consumer data (400M users, 35M merchants), but monetization metrics remain undisclosed.
Blue Owl partnership moves BNPL loan risk off PayPal’s balance (up to $7B), allowing PayPal to scale BNPL without equivalent capital strain (impacts PYPL cash flow dynamics).
PayUSD’s rapid on-chain growth (large short-term inflows) and integrations across blockchains create incremental revenue and use-cases, though revenue splits with Paxos are unclear.

Bullish

Offsite ads plus PayPal's combined consumer+merchant data (400M users, 35M merchants) could be high-margin revenue.
Google partnership expands PayPal Enterprise Payments across Google Cloud, Ads, and Play, boosting processing role.
PayUSD stablecoin adoption and ecosystem integrations (Spark, Stellar, LayerZero chains) support new on‑chain use cases.
Blue Owl backing for BNPL ($7B capacity) de-risks loans and enables BNPL volume expansion.
Venmo + PayPal interoperability and PayPal World broaden merchant reach and can drive TPV acceleration.

Bearish

PayPal's stock has underperformed (down ~20% YTD) and feels like an opportunity cost for long holders.
Management provides limited, unclear monetization metrics and guidance for new initiatives, training analysts to discount announcements.
Top-line revenue growth is weak (Braintree headwinds) despite improvements in other metrics and conservative guidance.

Bullish tickers

PYPLGOOGOWLPAXOS

Bearish tickers

PYPL

4 price targets

100110115120

Bullish

Multiple growth catalysts (offsite ads, PayPal World/Venmo interoperability, PayUSD, Google partnership, BNPL scale via Blue Owl) and expected free cash flow ramp.

Bearish

Stagnant top-line growth, unclear monetization metrics for new products, Braintree-driven revenue headwinds, and skeptical analysts.

GOOG

Bullish

Deeper Google Cloud tie and designation as a key payments provider across Google products expands PayPal's processing footprint.

Bearish

Partnership terms are ambiguous and non-exclusive, so near-term revenue impact for PayPal may be modest.

OWL

Bullish

Blue Owl backing enables rapid BNPL scale (up to $7B), removing capital constraints and driving TPV growth.

Bearish

PayPal may cede some economics to Blue Owl by outsourcing BNPL loan risk and funding.

PAXOS

Bullish

Paxos partnership enables PayUSD issuance and yield features, supporting PayPal’s stablecoin-led on-chain initiatives.

Bearish

Partnership revenue splits and PayUSD economics are unclear, leaving near-term revenue attribution ambiguous.

People mentioned

TannerSteveAlex ChrissDan SchulmanElon MuskFrank KellerMargretheJared IsaacmanMonicaJamie BillRoyGig