Crossroads
RIP Stock Market? (Plus HIMS Earnings) | Bootleg Weekly
11/4/2025, 10:39:04 PM
Economic Summary
- HIMS (HIMS) reported decelerating year-over-year growth driven by a GLP-1 revenue spike last year; adjusted free cash flow is positive but net income compressed, and subscriber growth is slowing which makes next-year product ramp (testosterone, menopause, peptides) critical.
- OpenAI (OPENAI) is described as at risk of becoming a commodity; an IPO would likely be highly overheated relative to a fair revenue-based valuation and could tumble once insiders can sell and shorting resumes.
- Meta (META) posted strong earnings with elevated R&D spending for AR/AI efforts; while fundamentals look solid (P/E mid-to-high-20s), the market reacted negatively to EPS dynamics despite solid execution.
- Macro: consumers appear resilient through the holiday season and corporate earnings broadly look okay, but geopolitical/domestic risks (government shutdowns, elections) and country-specific fiscal policy (Canadian budget) are creating currency and confidence strains.
Bullish
- Anthropic/Claude gaining LLM market share and is an attractive private opportunity.
- Meta delivered strong earnings and may be undervalued versus fundamentals.
- PayPal has low expectations and clear upside to renewed growth.
- HIMS long-term thesis intact; transitionary period could lead to upside if new products ramp.
Bearish
- OpenAI IPO likely to be massively overheated and short-term overvalued, then fall toward fair value.
- HIMS faces revenue concentration and margin risk from GLP-1 price/subsidy moves and disclosure gaps.
- Potential low conviction and CEO/stock-pumping concerns at some companies could hurt long-term trust.
- SpaceX and other hyped private listings expected to be superheated at IPO.
Bullish tickers
ANTHROPICMETAPYPLHIMSAMZNENPHVG
Bearish tickers
OPENAIHIMSSPACEX
HIMS
2 price targets
4030
Bullish
Personalization and subscriber base remain strengths; adjusted free cash flow positive and long-term product pipeline could restore growth.
Bearish
Heavy reliance on GLP-1 revenue, slower subscriber growth, potential low-margin deals with big pharma (Novo) and possible lack of transparent disclosure.
OPENAI
Bullish
Huge market presence and revenue potential, but competitive dynamics make it less attractive at IPO froth.
Bearish
IPO expected to be superheated and overvalued; product likely to become commoditized over time.
ANTHROPIC
Bullish
Gaining LLM market share (Claude) and seen as an attractive private investment opportunity.
PLTR
Bullish
Strong enterprise positioning and unique CEO-driven strategy could sustain the business if succession is managed.
Bearish
Key-man risk around founder-CEO Alex Karp; leadership change could be disruptive.
META
3 price targets
900625625
Bullish
Triple-beat earnings and solid fundamentals; appears undervalued relative to execution and long-term positioning.
Bearish
Personal ethical concerns about product impact; increased R&D and AR spending could pressure margins short-term.
AMZN
1 price targets
250
Bullish
Strong recent earnings and long-term business strength make it a solid pick at attractive levels.
PYPL
1 price targets
130
Bullish
Low expectations create room for upside; execution could drive a steady recovery to mid-double-digit gains.
ENPH
Bullish
Solar/energy exposure remains viable; company likely to persist and benefit from longer-term energy trends.
VG
Bullish
Natural gas exposure seen as attractive near current levels; prompted opportunistic buying.
NVO
Bullish
Referenced as a counterparty in low-price GLP-1 deals that could pressure margins for sellers.
LLY
Bullish
Mentioned alongside Novo Nordisk in potential policy/subsidy discussions affecting GLP-1 pricing.
SOFI
1 price targets
34
Bullish
Management of position sizing and covered-call strategy cited; personal conviction-driven holding.
GOOGL
Bullish
Referenced as a major AI competitor in the LLM landscape.
SPACEX
Bullish
Fundamentally an amazing company but IPO may be frothy.
Bearish
Expected to be very superheated at IPO.
BRK.B
Bullish
Referenced in value conversation; Berkshire's cash levels and PE noted as part of market discussion.
People mentioned
Elon MuskSam AltmanBrad GerstnerAlex KarpPeter ThielMark ZuckerbergMo ElishwaniShamWarren BuffettRoyElijahTevisTomTinelliCarlBarronJeff Bezos