Crossroads
SoFi s Earnings were EVEN BETTER than you think!
10/29/2025, 9:30:02 PM
Economic Summary
- SoFi (SOFI) reported a triple-beat quarter with EPS of $0.11 and ~40% year-over-year revenue growth, indicating strong top-line momentum and improved profitability that underpins the bullish thesis.
- Products-per-member is growing slightly faster (36% YoY) than member growth (35% YoY), implying improved monetization and stickier customer relationships as members adopt multiple SoFi services.
- Management highlighted a new SoFi Pay wallet and a planned SoFi USD stablecoin (targeted for 2026), which could materially expand payments, remittance flows, and international reach if regulatory hurdles are cleared.
- Marketing and flywheel dynamics (cross-sell from student loans to other financial products) appear to be working: low-cost outreach is driving higher product take-rates and loan originations, supporting future revenue mix improvement.
- There is regulatory and third-party dependency risk around crypto and stablecoin initiatives (Paxos mentioned as intermediary), creating timing and execution uncertainty for the payments expansion.
Bullish
- SoFi delivered a triple beat with accelerating revenue (~40% YoY), signaling strong underlying growth.
- Products-per-member growth outpacing member growth shows successful cross-sell and higher platform stickiness.
- SoFi Pay wallet and planned SoFi USD stablecoin could unlock payments, remittances, and international expansion.
- Targeted marketing and low-cost member offers are effectively driving product adoption and loan originations.
Bearish
- SoFi's planned stablecoin (SoFi USD) is contingent on regulatory approval and could be delayed or restricted.
- Several SoFi offerings (e.g., Relay) do not meaningfully monetize, limiting near-term revenue upside.
- SOFI stock shows post-earnings volatility and is in price-discovery, increasing short-term downside risk.
- Reliance on third parties (e.g., Paxos) for crypto infrastructure creates counterparty and regulatory exposure.
Bullish tickers
SOFIHOODPYPL
Bearish tickers
SOFIPAXOSHOOD
SOFI
Bullish
Triple-beat quarter with ~40% YoY revenue growth, rising products-per-member, SoFi Pay wallet and planned SoFi USD could drive payments and international expansion.
Bearish
Stablecoin launch is regulatory-dependent and could be delayed; some consumer products like Relay don't monetize, and the stock is volatile post-earnings.
HOOD
Bullish
Has historically excelled at member acquisition and expanding services, improving its one-stop-shop value proposition.
Bearish
Revenue and product monetization appear less impressive versus SoFi despite strong member growth.
PYPL
Bullish
Mentioned as an example where USD-tagged stablecoins are payment-focused, supporting a payments use-case thesis for similar offerings.
Bearish
Payments and stablecoin competition is intense; no specific PayPal fundamentals discussed in the transcript.
PAXOS
Bullish
Provides the intermediary infrastructure that enables firms to offer crypto-linked rewards or stablecoin-based payment rails.
Bearish
Dependence on Paxos for intermediary stablecoin services increases counterparty and regulatory risk for SoFi's crypto plans.
People mentioned
CrossroadsAnthony Noto