Crossroads
SoFi Stock Earnings will SHOCK and AWE! [My Predictions]
10/24/2025, 8:52:19 PM
Economic Summary
- SOFI is projected to report net revenue around $967M (~39-40% YoY) driven largely by lending and financial services, which could keep growth momentum intact.
- Lending strength is the primary growth driver: personal loans and loan-platform activity are accelerating, supported by high demand among banks and lenders.
- Financial services (where most loans flow) is the fastest-growing segment and is showing rapid sequential acceleration, boosting fee and interest income for SOFI.
- Payments/tech revenue may be flat near-term due to Chime migrating debit accounts off Galileo, though a one-time payout from Chime could arrive in a later quarter.
- Macro outlook: market pricing implies additional Fed rate cuts later in the year; anticipated cuts tend to spur lending demand and could lead to front-loaded originations into Q4 seasonality.
Bullish
- Strong member growth (projected ~960,000) supporting engagement and revenue.
- Lending demand is robust, especially personal loans, benefiting net interest and fees.
- Financial services segment accelerating rapidly, driving high-margin growth.
- Expected Fed rate cuts should front-run and boost lending activity and originations.
- Lending Club outperformance historically correlates with SoFi doing well.
Bearish
- Harder year-over-year comps versus last quarter could mute headline beats.
- Corporate segment is typically negative and could drag aggregate results.
- Tech platform revenue may be pressured by Chime account migrations off Galileo.
- If SOFI misses the ~40% growth expectation, stock could react negatively.
Bullish tickers
SOFILC
Bearish tickers
SOFICHIME
SOFI
Bullish
Bull case rests on strong member growth (~960k projected), robust lending demand (personal loans), rapidly accelerating financial services, marketing/partnership tailwinds, and benefits from expected rate cuts.
Bearish
Risks include tougher year-over-year comps, a typically negative corporate segment, and potential near-term tech-platform weakness from Chime migrations reducing Galileo revenue.
PYPL
LC
Bullish
Lending Club recently reported strong results; historically, LC strength often aligns with improved lending trends for SOFI.
CHIME
Bullish
Early migration may trigger a one-time payout to SOFI under Galileo contracts, providing a potential near-term revenue boost later.
Bearish
Chime migrating debit accounts off Galileo is likely to depress SOFI's tech/platform revenue near-term.
People mentioned
CrossroadsTannerJosh Allen