Crossroads
SoFi stock hit a new all time high! Here's what is next.
9/19/2025, 12:15:03 AM
Economic Summary
- Fed policy outlook: market probabilities and Fed commentary indicate openness to multiple rate cuts this year, which would lower the Fed funds rate and broadly improve lending economics for consumer lenders like SoFi (SOFI).
- Rate-sensitivity: Most of SoFi's lending products benefit from lower short-term rates, improving net interest margins, though 30-year mortgages and student loans show weak correlation to Fed funds moves.
- Market technicals: SOFI hit a new all-time high and entered price discovery — this removes prior resistance, increasing volatility and the potential for large upside and downside swings.
- Payments/stablecoin thesis: Venture/investor commentary (Bill Gurley) and executive responses (Anthony Noto) highlight a potential alternative payments network built on stablecoin rails; firms with bank charters and payment infrastructure (SoFi, Coinbase, Block, Circle) are central to that macro trend.
Bullish
- Expected Fed rate cuts should improve most of SoFi's lending margins and product economics.
- SoFi's OCC national bank charter enables deposit-taking, fed interest on deposits, and stablecoin issuance.
- SoFi already processes ~8 billion transactions yearly — strong payments rails for a new network.
- All-time-high breakout puts SOFI into price discovery, enabling significant upside if momentum continues.
Bearish
- SOFI is in price discovery with RSI near 70 — higher volatility risks downside for late buyers.
- Some lending segments (mortgages, student loans) have low correlation to Fed cuts, limiting benefits.
- Stablecoin rails may not fully displace card networks domestically, reducing total addressable market.
- Rate-cut expectations could reverse if inflation or jobs unexpectedly strengthen, hurting rate-sensitive rally.
Bullish tickers
SOFICOINSQHOODPYPLMAVCIRCLETETHERDAI
Bearish tickers
SOFI
SOFI
Bullish
OCC bank charter, deposit capabilities, fed interest on deposits, and 8B transactions/year payments tech position SoFi to benefit from rate cuts and stablecoin/payment network opportunities.
Bearish
Overbought technicals and price-discovery volatility; some loan products unaffected by rate cuts and macro reversal risk.
COIN
Bullish
As a major crypto exchange, Coinbase could play a role in stablecoin rails and payment alternatives.
Bearish
Regulatory uncertainty around crypto and stablecoins could limit adoption as mainstream payment rails.
SQ
Bullish
Block has payments expertise and product ecosystem that could benefit if alternative payment networks emerge.
Bearish
Competition and regulatory/technical adoption hurdles could slow Square/Block's payments expansion into stablecoin rails.
HOOD
Bullish
Robinhood is mentioned as a likely entrant into alternative payments and could leverage its retail user base.
Bearish
Robinhood faces execution and regulatory risks transitioning into payments/stablecoin services.
PYPL
Bullish
PayPal's scale and product set could allow it to adapt and compete in stablecoin-enabled payment flows.
Bearish
Incumbent card and payments players may face disruption if new rails scale, pressuring margins.
MA
Bullish
Mastercard likely remains integral to new rails as it partners on tokenization and payments infrastructure.
Bearish
Mastercard could see reduced domestic interchange if stablecoin rails meaningfully displace card usage.
V
Bullish
Visa's global network and partnerships make it a probable collaborator on stablecoin/payment integrations.
Bearish
Visa faces similar displacement risk from new payment rails and stablecoin adoption.
CIRCLE
Bullish
Circle (USDC) is a major stablecoin contender that could undergird new payments rails.
Bearish
Circle faces regulatory and competition risks in becoming the dominant stablecoin issuer for payments.
TETHER
Bullish
Tether (USDT) remains a large stablecoin with strong existing usage in crypto markets.
Bearish
Tether's transparency and regulatory scrutiny could limit broader institutional adoption for payments.
DAI
Bullish
DAI offers a decentralized stablecoin model that could be used in alternative payments, especially in crypto-native contexts.
Bearish
DAI's decentralized mechanics may limit scaling or integration with regulated banks and payment systems.
People mentioned
Anthony NotoBill GurleyJerome Powell