Crossroads
Stock Portfolio Update: I've been buying THESE stocks (2 new positions!)
10/17/2025, 7:55:03 PM
Economic Summary
- AI infrastructure demand is ramping — wafer‑level burn‑in testing and specialized materials (gallium nitride, silicon carbide, silicon photonics) create tailwinds for suppliers like Airtask (AIR).
- PayPal (PYPL) expects material free cash flow and product monetization (Venmo integration, BNPL, ads), potentially driving meaningful revenue acceleration by Q4 and into Q1.
- Cryptocurrency positioning: the host doubled crypto exposure toward Ethereum and expects Bitmine (levered) to potentially outperform ETH over a two‑year horizon despite short‑term volatility.
- Macroeconomic and timing effects are influencing results: tax-credit timing boosted Tesla’s sales into Q2, likely weakening Q3/Q4; currency and geopolitics impacted NuBank’s environment but have improved since January.
Bullish
- Airtask Systems uniquely offers gallium nitride wafer-level burn‑in testing, strong technical advantage.
- Robinhood (HOOD) positioned well for the next decade; large long-term holding.
- PayPal (PYPL) poised for revenue acceleration with Venmo monetization and BNPL, $5.5B FCF tailwinds.
- SoFi (SOFI) strong two‑year tailwinds and potential to add meaningfully on weakness.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) remains central to the AI wave and data‑center demand.
- NuBank (NU) expanding Latin American share and launching in Mexico and U.S. opportunities.
- Bitmine is a leveraged exposure to Ethereum and digital‑asset treasuries, potential outperformance versus ETH.
Bearish
- Airtask Systems is a microcap and highly volatile; price could fall below $22, risking significant downside.
- Tesla appears expensive; shifting tax-credit timing may cause weak Q3/Q4 and sizable share-price declines.
- Palantir is expensive relative to fundamentals despite conviction; valuation risk if growth disappoints.
- PayPal has underperformed and represents an opportunity cost if expected revenue acceleration doesn’t materialize.
- Bitmine is a levered crypto/ethereum play and vulnerable to crypto winter and high swing volatility.
- Hims & Hers (HIMS) core revenue has slowed and CEO’s short‑squeeze comments increase corporate governance concerns.
Bullish tickers
AIRHOODPYPLSOFINVDANUBITMINEHIMS
Bearish tickers
AIRTSLAPLTRPYPLBITMINEHIMS
AIR
2 price targets
3422
Bullish
Unique global position in gallium nitride and wafer‑level burn‑in testing with strong customer interest.
Bearish
Microcap volatility, product mix/headwinds could push shares materially lower below $22.
BITMINE
Bullish
Levered play on Ethereum and digital‑asset treasury consolidation; institutional interest could drive outsized gains.
Bearish
Levered crypto/ETH exposure; vulnerable to crypto winter and high swing volatility.
HOOD
Bullish
Long‑term positioning; core holding expected to perform over the next decade.
Bearish
Cyclical exposure and high run implies downside if market sentiment reverses.
PYPL
Bullish
Clear levers (Venmo monetization, BNPL, ads) and projected FCF support a turnaround by Q4.
Bearish
Stock has underperformed; opportunity cost if anticipated top‑line acceleration is delayed.
SOFI
Bullish
Strong business momentum and conviction to add on dips; potential to double/triple on weakness.
Bearish
High expectations priced in; could be diluted by any missed execution.
TSLA
Bullish
Long‑term optionality from Optimus and FSD; founder/product strength supports holding through volatility.
Bearish
Currently expensive with risk of weak Q3/Q4 after tax‑credit timing shifted benefits to Q2.
HIMS
Bullish
New menopause/perimenopause and HERS product lines could drive meaningful revenue acceleration.
Bearish
Core revenue slowing and governance concerns from CEO behavior could pressure shares.
NVDA
Bullish
Central supplier for AI/data centers with differentiated pricing power and strategic deals.
Bearish
May not be top performer in portfolio despite strength; valuation risk exists.
NU
Bullish
Strong market share gains in Brazil, aggressive Mexico expansion, and U.S. filing position it for growth.
Bearish
Geopolitical/currency risks in Brazil and LatAm could create episodic share pressure.
People mentioned
Elon MuskLisa Su