Crossroads
Stock Rally Continues! AMD, TSLA, BMNR, GOOGL | Tech Bros Weekly
10/7/2025, 3:01:26 PM
Economic Summary
- Robinhood (HOOD) experienced a rapid re-rating as new products (prediction markets, cards, banking) and S&P inflows fueled a move from ~$120 to ~$150+; outages and heavy trading volatility create both short-term risk and a wall of worry that could attract dip buyers.
- Semiconductor and AI hardware demand (led by NVDA) appears driven by large contracts and product cycles; speakers noted rising revenue visibility, a falling multiple even as share prices rise, and debate over whether parts of the space are speculative versus real demand-driven growth.
- Tesla (TSLA) faces a valuation-versus-execution tension: product strength and long-term robotics optionality contrast with stretched multiples and public guidance that implies limited growth until around Q3 2026, creating near-term risk despite longer-term upside.
- Crypto seasonality and momentum matter: October saw renewed Bitcoin and Ethereum strength, with expectations ETH could revisit ~$5,000; products and vehicles that hold crypto (e.g., BM&R) benefit from price rallies but also face dilution and liquidity management issues.
Bullish
- Robinhood (HOOD) shipping new products (prediction markets, cards, banking) and seeing S&P inflows.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) and large AI semiconductor demand show real contract-driven revenue growth.
- Tesla (TSLA) remains a strong product/business with optional upside from humanoid robotics long-term.
- Crypto momentum (BTC, ETH) and ETF-like products (BM&R) support asset inflows and trading activity.
- Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) has unique wafer-level testing tech and incoming orders tied to chip demand.
Bearish
- Platform outages and execution lapses (e.g., HOOD) erode trust and spur negative headlines.
- Tesla valuation looks stretched versus near-term fundamentals and Elon guided no growth until Q3 2026.
- Speculative, pre-revenue AI and hardware names could face sharp repricing if ROI disappoints.
- Funds that dilute shares for liquidity (e.g., BM&R) can pressure per-share returns and investor sentiment.
Bullish tickers
HOODNVDATSLABTCETHAEHRPYPLSOFICOINBM&R
Bearish tickers
HOODTSLABM&R
HOOD
6 price targets
120130153145135139.99
Bullish
Rapid product launches (prediction markets, cards, banking) plus S&P inflows and international talks drive TAM expansion.
Bearish
Customer outages and high-visibility platform issues risk reputational damage and reduced trust.
SOFI
Bullish
Competitive rivalry and product cadence (cards, banking) could accelerate innovation and user growth.
Bearish
Brokerage footprint remains much smaller than Robinhood; competitive pressure from Hood is intense.
NVDA
Bullish
Robust real-world demand, large contracts, and continued chip cycle support strong revenue growth.
Bearish
Some worry about broader AI froth and speculative segments creating downside risk if ROI softens.
TSLA
3 price targets
460500550
Bullish
Best-in-class EV product, optional upside from humanoid robotics and physical AI exposure.
Bearish
Valuation appears stretched relative to near-term fundamentals; guidance implies limited growth until Q3 2026.
AEHR
1 price targets
22
Bullish
Unique wafer-level test systems with recent meaningful orders and exposure to rising chip testing demand.
Bearish
Very long multi-quarter sales cycles and execution/timing risk on order ramps.
PYPL
Bullish
Buy-now-pay-later rollout and integrated product stack could drive revenue through holiday season.
Bearish
Recent product launches (BNPL) are incremental and not transformational in the near term.
COIN
Bullish
Large incumbent crypto exchange that benefits from renewed crypto momentum and trading volumes.
Bearish
Platform outages in the sector raise operational concerns and reputational risk.
ETH
1 price targets
5000
Bullish
Momentum and seasonality could push ETH materially higher; hosts discussed a path to ~$5,000 in a rally.
Bearish
Price volatility and dependency on broader crypto market flows create downside risk.
BTC
Bullish
Renewed October momentum and seasonality supporting higher Bitcoin prices and related product flows.
BM&R
Bullish
High liquidity and premium trading enable aggressive accumulation of underlying crypto as prices rise.
Bearish
Regular dilution to supply underlying asset purchases can depress per-share outcomes for some investors.
People mentioned
RoyTannerAmitAnthony NotoVlad TenevAlex ChrissKen GriffinBrad GerstnerPaul Tudor JonesLisa SuTom LeeElon MuskBrett AdcockChris PatelSteveLori