Crossroads
Tesla Earnings Eve! Plus AMZN, GOOGL, NVDA and Gold | Bootleg Weekly
10/22/2025, 12:22:53 AM
Economic Summary
- Google and Anthropic are reportedly in talks for a multibillion-dollar cloud deal (high tens of billions), which lifted GOOGL ~3% and pressured AMZN (~-1.5%), implying cloud contract wins can materially shift market positioning among major cloud providers.
- AWS outages demonstrated systemic operational risk across internet services, causing short-term market reactions and reminding investors of concentration risks in cloud infrastructure (affects AMZN, HOOD, COIN and other AWS-dependent firms).
- Precious metals (gold) have seen a recent run driven by central bank accumulation and retail euphoria; concurrent US 10-year movement below 4% and crypto strength complicate safe-haven flows and may presage consolidation.
- The MAG7/large-cap winners are described as anti-fragile: resource hoarding and top engineering talent allow rapid experiments like Google's TPUs and companies’ shifting capital into AI, strengthening durable competitive advantages (relevant to NVDA, GOOGL, AAPL, AMZN).
- Fintech momentum: SoFi (SOFI) is expanding (East Coast HQ hires) and remains in a growth phase; management optimism and rate-cut probabilities are key macro drivers for loan and refinancing volumes.
Bullish
- NVIDIA is a clear market leader in AI chips and direct investments support its moat.
- Google (GOOGL) may be underappreciated: big Cloud/TPU progress and Anthropic talks could drive material upside.
- SoFi (SOFI) retains material long-term upside; still early in market share capture.
- Tesla (TSLA) retains optionality via Optimus, FSD and potential XAI integration.
Bearish
- AWS outage highlighted operational risks and could dent Amazon's cloud credibility (AMZN).
- Hims (HIMS) faces execution risk after missed revenue and management stock-sale optics.
- Salesforce (CRM) may be a value trap due to leadership erraticism and integration limits.
- PayPal (PYPL) looks rangebound and could lag without clear re-acceleration.
- Gold’s violent retail-driven move may precede a sharp pullback as euphoria cools.
Bullish tickers
NVDAGOOGLSOFITSLA
Bearish tickers
AMZNHIMSCRMPYPLGOLD
NVDA
Bullish
Market-leading AI GPU position, willingness to invest in partners, and direct investments strengthen long-term dominance.
Bearish
Competition from alternative compute stacks and occasional client consolidation could pressure margins over time.
GOOGL
Bullish
Anthropic cloud talks and improved TPU/chip design capability suggest meaningful upside beyond search and ads.
Bearish
Search remains a core dependency; failure to monetize new hardware/software bets could disappoint expectations.
AMZN
Bullish
AWS remains a massive moat and outage reminders can reinforce the value of Amazon’s infrastructure leadership.
Bearish
High-visibility AWS outages expose operational risk and could invite cloud customer re-evaluation.
TSLA
Bullish
Optimus, FSD/robotaxi upside and possible XAI integration sustain a long-term growth narrative.
Bearish
Near-term fundamentals and guidance divergence from narrative could weigh shares despite long-term optionality.
SOFI
2 price targets
2511
Bullish
Management momentum, market-share runway and hiring expansion support longer-term upside; $25 cited as a meaningful level.
Bearish
Cyclicality and macro sensitivity mean some quarters may disappoint; short-term volatility possible.
HIMS
Bullish
Company still has multi-quarter catalysts and remains a next-year growth story for believers.
Bearish
Missed revenue and CEO share-sale optics created investor doubt and increased downside risk.
LMND
Bullish
Early-stage product momentum can re-rate shares on improving fundamentals.
Bearish
Valuation and sustainability concerns if growth normalizes.
PYPL
Bullish
Attractive entry if market regime shifts and fundamental improvements appear.
Bearish
Perceived as a laggard; may underperform until clear re-acceleration emerges.
ADBE
Bullish
Strong franchise and sticky customer base give it durable cashflow potential if execution steadies.
Bearish
User friction, pricing pushback and AI disruption risk create 'value trap' concerns.
CRM
Bullish
Sticky enterprise footprint means revenue base is defensible over time despite AI transition challenges.
Bearish
Leadership erraticism, execution questions and product integration limits risk making it a value trap.
AMD
Bullish
Strong product roadmap and competitive CPUs/GPUs provide a durable server and client opportunity.
Bearish
Still playing second fiddle to NVDA in AI GPUs and could be outcompeted on some workloads.
HOOD
Bullish
Retail engagement and product expansion can continue to drive monetization if execution holds.
Bearish
AWS dependence exposes operational risk during outages.
COIN
Bullish
Crypto market rallies and product diversification support upside in positive regimes.
Bearish
Crypto market volatility and infrastructure outages can hurt volume and revenue.
PLTR
Bullish
Embedded government and commercial contracts provide durable revenue opportunities over time.
Bearish
Sensitive to government contracting cycles; shutdowns create headline risk.
NEBIUS
Bullish
Management and product momentum prompted recent purchases by hosts.
Bearish
Small/less-liquid name; portfolio crowding could create volatility.
ANTHROPIC
Bullish
Large cloud partnership potential with Google implies massive compute spend and validation.
OPENAI
Bullish
Strategic relationships with cloud and chip providers underpin rapid scaling and monetization potential.
XAI
Bullish
Potential Tesla/X integration (if approved) could accelerate Tesla's AI roadmap.
People mentioned
TevisRoyElijahBrockTannerNateRileyMatthewPaulChrisJimmyJensen HuangSam AltmanElon MuskTim CookMarc BenioffAndrew DudumAntonio LinaresJared IsaacmanSean DuffyRehard Jark