Crossroads
They re SHORTING BMNR stock! Here's why they're WRONG!
10/10/2025, 12:00:53 AM
Economic Summary
- NASDAQ clarified listings: companies seeking to acquire or sell tokens (ETH, SOL, BTC) with equity must get shareholder approval, which constrains but legitimizes digital-asset treasury strategies.
- Digital-asset treasuries tend to consolidate around a few large players (e.g., BMNR, SPET), producing heavier trading volume and institutional flows into those names.
- MNAV/NAV compression has occurred (notably with MSTR) as premiums fell from prior euphoria; that creates range-bound trading and makes dilution, staking, or buyback decisions material to valuations.
- ETH price dynamics drive portfolio NAVs: a breakout above about 5000 USD would likely trigger significant upside and price discovery for levered ETH exposures like BMNR.
Bullish
- BMNR is a levered way to gain Ethereum exposure and should outperform when ETH rallies.
- Institutional demand and volume concentration favor major digital-asset treasuries like BMNR and SPET.
- BMNR retained capital to buy Ethereum or repurchase undervalued shares, showing strategic adaptability.
Bearish
- Short report argues BMNR's MNAV/NAV premium is shrinking and the premium can't endure amid clones and cheaper ETF-like exposure.
- Allegation that recent shelf offering with warrants diluted shareholders and showed inability to raise capital at a clean premium.
- Claim that ETH-per-share growth is slowing and acquisitions are decelerating, signaling a weakening strategy versus peers.
Bullish tickers
BMNRETHMSTRSPET
Bearish tickers
BMNR
BMNR
Bullish
Rebuttal: BMNR is an adaptable, institutional-friendly Ethereum treasury that trades as leveraged ETH, retains capital for buybacks and further acquisitions.
Bearish
Short thesis: shrinking MNAV/NAV premium, dilution risk from shelf/warrants, competition from clones and ETFs undermining premium.
MSTR
Bullish
Historically validated digital-asset treasury playbook but differs in mechanics versus Ethereum-focused treasuries.
Bearish
Shown as an example of NAV/MNAV compression and premium retreat versus peak euphoria.
ETH
1 price targets
5000
Bullish
Underlying ETH appreciation will lift treasuries; a breakout above 5000 USD could produce outsized gains for levered ETH plays.
Bearish
Transcript notes slowing ETH-per-share growth for some treasury issuers and that price pullbacks hurt NAVs.
SPET
Bullish
Part of the consolidation dynamic; one of the higher-volume Ethereum treasuries that institutions consider.
Bearish
Competitor that could limit BMNR's market share if it gains traction; volume may shift.
ETHZ
Bullish
Not highlighted as a winner; cited mainly to show dispersion among treasuries.
Bearish
Mentioned as an example of a retail name trading under MNAV and struggling relative to majors.
SBET
Bullish
Represents smaller players that may trade below NAV in stress scenarios.
Bearish
Another retail-heavy treasury trading under value and used as a contrast to BMNR.
BTBT
Bullish
Trades at a premium in its segment and illustrates cross-asset treasury behaviors.
Bearish
Not a pure Ethereum play; trading dynamics differ and was mentioned in a comparative context.
WLD
Bullish
Acquisition mentioned but not central; speaker flagged it as a weaker part of BMNR's treasury mix.
Bearish
BMNR's purchase of WorldCoin noted as a questionable asset choice by the speaker and omitted by the short report.
People mentioned
Tom Lee