Crossroads
What AI Bubble? AMD, ORCL, TSLA, PYPL, and APP Stocks | Bootleg Weekly
10/8/2025, 12:49:29 AM
Economic Summary
- OpenAI is striking large hardware deals (e.g., AMD: six gigawatts of Instinct GPUs starting H2 2026) that tie AI model growth to major chip vendors and create cross-company equity/contract linkages with macro implications for supply chains and valuations.
- The Biden/Trump-era student loan sale talk (roughly $1.6 trillion) could create servicing and ancillary opportunities for fintech lenders like SoFi (SOFI), but any privatization will be heavily legislated and allocated among many lenders, so upside is likely incremental and politically contingent.
- A euphoric AI rally is being driven by tangible revenue and profitability at leaders (NVIDIA, Google, Meta), yet deep interconnections (OpenAI equity stakes, vendor deals) heighten systemic risk if a major partner stalls or regulatory/legal issues arise.
- BMNR (an Ethereum treasury vehicle) is actively accumulating ETH weekly as a leveraged institutional play; such treasuries institutionalize crypto exposure and could attract inflows, but also raise concentration and dilution dynamics across token and share supply.
- Microcap hardware/service plays (e.g., AirTest Systems) are acting as AI proxies: they can see rapid re-rating but suffer long multi-quarter sales cycles, tariffs, and heightened volatility until large contracts ramp.
Bullish
- OpenAI buying large GPU capacity validates huge demand for AI hardware (bullish for AMD/NVIDIA).
- BMNR accumulating Ethereum weekly offers leveraged, institutional exposure to ETH appreciation.
- SoFi could gain meaningful servicing revenue if a student-loan portfolio sale occurs.
- PayPal/Venmo monetization and PayPal World expansion increase merchant acceptance and international payments.
Bearish
- Tesla's new $40k model appears materially downgraded and may not drive upgrades or margin expansion.
- AMD's OpenAI deal structure suggests weaker negotiation leverage and chips seen as inferior to NVIDIA's.
- Highly interconnected AI deals (OpenAI + suppliers) create systemic fragility if OpenAI or partners stumble.
- Microcaps like AirTest priced for perfection with long sales cycles, making them volatile near earnings.
Bullish tickers
AMDNVDABMNRSOFIPYPLRKLBAIRTEST SYSTEMS
Bearish tickers
TSLAAMDNVDAAIRTEST SYSTEMS
TSLA
1 price targets
150
Bullish
A cheaper model could expand addressable market and potential future FSD/licensing revenue if executed.
Bearish
New lower-priced model appears downgraded across quality, features, and range; may not convert buyers or protect margins.
AMD
Bullish
OpenAI commit (~6 GW across generations) signals strong demand for AMD Instinct GPUs and validates product market fit.
Bearish
Deal terms with OpenAI (warrants/stock) imply weaker negotiation leverage and AMD lacks NVIDIA's ecosystem advantage.
NVDA
1 price targets
215
Bullish
Market-leading position, strong profitability and real earnings growth underpin continued upside in AI adoption.
Bearish
Extreme interconnections and high expectations create downside if OpenAI or partners face setbacks.
BMNR
1 price targets
200
Bullish
Largest active Ethereum treasury accumulating weekly; leveraged institutional exposure to ETH and option premium strategies.
Bearish
Ongoing share dilution and crypto winter risks could pressure ETH-per-share economics for investors.
SOFI
Bullish
Could secure lucrative servicing or small origination slices from a potential $1.6T student loan sale, adding accretive revenue.
Bearish
Any student loan portfolio sale will be split across many lenders and face heavy political/regulatory uncertainty.
PYPL
Bullish
Monetizing Venmo, expanding PayPal World and merchant acceptance are clear growth levers for payments revenue.
Bearish
Competitive payments landscape and past strategic missteps could limit rapid upside.
RKLB
Bullish
Positioned to benefit from increased launch demand and NewSpace commercialization themes.
Bearish
Not deeply discussed; launch and execution risks remain for small space/launch providers.
AIRTEST SYSTEMS
Bullish
Niche burn-in test specialist for chips/AI hardware with unique capabilities and expected H2 revenue ramp; long-term AI proxy.
Bearish
Long multi-quarter sales cycle, tariff exposure, and prior valuation priced to perfection cause steep volatility.
People mentioned
RoyTevisMatt MoneyAnthony NotoDonald TrumpTannerChrisSteveTom LeeAmitMark LevineSawyer MerrittAlex KarpDinoShirleyMatthewJesseManuelElon MuskPaulDavis