Crossroads
Will Palantir CRUSH earnings again? | PLTR Stock (Watch before Monday)
10/31/2025, 10:30:18 PM
Economic Summary
- Palantir (PLTR) is guiding Q3 FY2025 revenue between $1.083B–$1.087B, implying roughly 50% year-over-year growth and signaling strong near-term topline acceleration.
- Net dollar retention is a core growth driver: management and analyst data point to ~132% NDR, meaning existing customers are expanding spend and can drive substantial organic revenue even without many new logos.
- Billings/bookings and RPOs show clear acceleration; billings have ~0.95 correlation with future revenue for Palantir, though government IDIQ structures can distort RPO-to-revenue timing.
- Valuation is materially higher than peers (Palantir sits isolated on growth vs. multiple charts), reflecting expectations of sustained >40% revenue growth and justifying a premium multiple but raising downside risk if growth cools.
- Palantir holds a large cash position (noted as over $6B), currently largely in treasuries, creating optionality for M&A, venture investing, or investments to accelerate international/commercial expansion.
Bullish
- Guidance implies ~50% YoY revenue growth and billions in revenue.
- Huge deal activity: 157 deals ≥ $1M and 42 deals ≥ $10M last quarter.
- Very high net dollar retention (~132%) driving organic revenue expansion.
- Billings (bookings) accelerating, indicating stronger future revenue recognition.
- Outstanding margins and strong rule-of-40 metrics for a billion-dollar software business.
Bearish
- Stock is extremely expensive with an outsized revenue multiple relative to peers.
- Heavy reliance on government IDIQ contracts which may not convert fully to near-term revenue.
- International/commercial penetration remains a weak spot and could limit growth.
- Large cash balance sitting in treasuries instead of being deployed to drive growth.
Bullish tickers
PLTRLAZRRUBRIK
Bearish tickers
PLTR
PLTR
1 price targets
200
Bullish
Strong guidance, accelerating billings, 157 large deals last quarter, and very high net dollar retention (~132%) driving rapid revenue growth.
Bearish
Extremely expensive valuation and high revenue multiple; international weakness and IDIQ contract structures could limit near-term revenue conversion.
NVDA
NET
SNOW
CRWD
LAZR
Bullish
Announced a sizable $100M contract extension with Palantir, signaling commercial traction.
RUBRIK
Bullish
Called out as looking attractive on valuation relative to peers in the commentary.
FIGMA
People mentioned
CrossroadsDan GlazerArni TreziJan BollenAlex Karp