steven fiorillo
Afternoon Stock Market Stream
10/28/2025, 7:02:05 PM
Economic Summary
- Market rally driven by AI optimism and major tech earnings momentum, with Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple and others lifting indices (e.g., talk of S&P reaching 7000).
- Many strategists view macro risks as low today; inflation falling and easing financial conditions have reduced recession probability in the near term.
- Some market participants and economists (Paul McCulley) believe the Fed should cut ~100bps and markets have largely discounted rate cuts to around a 3% policy rate.
- Despite talk of bubbles, differences from past tech bubbles include stronger fundamentals and free cash flow in large tech firms, making them less rates-dependent.
- Fintech is undergoing structural change: SoFi is rolling out crypto buy/sell/hold, a stablecoin and international remittance via blockchain, while PayPal announced partnership with OpenAI for in-chat payments.
Bullish
- AI-related news and partnerships are driving outsized earnings and multiple expansion for big tech.
- Strong earnings from Mag7 names could continue market leadership and push indices higher.
- Fintech innovation (SoFi crypto/stablecoin/SoFi Pay) and PayPal–OpenAI payments integration expand addressable markets.
- Large-cap momentum (Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple) can produce a continued melt-up in equities.
Bearish
- A recession next year could raise unemployment and trigger a market downturn.
- A tightening cycle or Fed hesitation could pop the AI/tech-driven rally and cause large drawdowns.
- Highly speculative or FOMO-driven names (e.g., SOFI) are vulnerable to sharp volatility and selloffs.
- Concentration risk in mega-cap tech means a negative shock could disproportionately hurt indices.
Bullish tickers
NVDAMSFTAAPLSOFIPYPLAMZNMETA
Bearish tickers
SOFINVDANFLXHOOD
NVDA
2 price targets
20394.36
Bullish
AI partnerships and strong earnings momentum suggest a large runway and continued upside.
Bearish
Rapid run-up and high volatility could lead to steep drawdowns if AI optimism or macro conditions sour.
SOFI
2 price targets
3210
Bullish
Launching SoFi Pay, stablecoin, crypto custody and strong deposit growth; potential to gain market share vs big banks.
Bearish
FOMO-driven retail flows and high volatility risk sharp pullbacks; valuation could be stretched.
AAPL
2 price targets
270175
Bullish
Strong earnings and cap-weighted momentum helping push Apple toward new highs.
Bearish
Large move from recent lows raises valuation concerns if future earnings disappoint.
MSFT
Bullish
Strategic deals and AI initiatives indicate continued growth and a long runway.
Bearish
Concentration in mega-caps could reverse and create downside if macro tightens.
AMZN
1 price targets
229
Bullish
Cloud and AI-related developments could drive upside in upcoming earnings.
Bearish
Still vulnerable to macro/earnings misses despite momentum.
META
1 price targets
750
Bullish
Strong AI investments and an anticipated double-beat on earnings support continued upside.
Bearish
High expectations around AI mean an earnings miss could be punished severely.
PYPL
Bullish
Partnership with OpenAI to enable payments inside ChatGPT is a significant distribution and product opportunity.
Bearish
Dividend news may not fully address structural competition and payment industry disruption.
NFLX
Bullish
Could recover above the 200-day if subscriber and content trends improve.
Bearish
Technical struggle around the 200-day moving average could indicate short-term weakness.
HOOD
Bullish
Retail investor inflows and new investor cohorts could create episodic share gains or FOMO effects.
Bearish
Competitive fintech landscape and behavior changes could limit long-term dominance and cause volatility.
People mentioned
Anthony NotoPaul McCulleyMark ZuckerbergSam AltmanTom LeeJerome PowellDonald TrumpAlex ChrissTannerChrisRoyAmitJoseph CarlsonSteveAnastasiaJosh