steven fiorillo
Alternative Asset Weekly: Ep 1 Featuring Nostalgia Nomics
10/13/2025, 3:50:59 AM
Economic Summary
- Sealed Pokemon booster boxes have shown consistent long-term appreciation versus the S&P when acquired at release and held multi-year, making them an attractive alternative-asset play for some investors.
- Grading demand is massive: PSA graded ~1.65M cards in 30 days and ~74,400 in a single day, implying annualized grading fee flows in the hundreds of millions and a large services economy around collectibles.
- Conventions and in-person markets now regularly host seven-figure inventory and hundreds of millions in aggregate capital, showing significant liquidity and institutional-style participation in collectibles.
- Market structure: sealed product is functionally deflationary (opened boxes are removed from supply), so price rises do not necessarily require proportionate new capital inflows.
- Tokenization/ETFs could materially expand liquidity and institutional participation; an ETF or tokenized fund custodizing high-end cards would lower frictions for mainstream investors.
Bullish
- Sealed booster boxes have historically outperformed broad indexes when bought at release and held multi-year.
- Strong liquidity exists on marketplaces (TCGplayer/eBay) and large consignment services, enabling exits.
- Big capital and celebrity buyers (e.g., Tom Brady, Kevin O'Leary) are allocating to collectibles.
- Sealed product is deflationary (boxes are opened and removed), supporting long-term scarcity and price appreciation.
Bearish
- Scalping, bot-driven buying, and higher MSRPs can create unstable, artificially elevated pricing.
- Pokemon company could increase printing or reprints, eroding scarcity and pressuring prices.
- Digital/NFT card efforts lack grading and secondary upside, limiting buyer confidence.
- Market dependency on outside, well-capitalized buyers; large capital withdrawal could trigger sharp corrections.
Bullish tickers
EBAYAMZNNVDACVXVZ
Bearish tickers
GMETCGPLAYERPSA
EBAY
Bullish
eBay benefits from collectible marketplace growth (owning TCGplayer increases exposure to trading-card liquidity).
Bearish
eBay's collectible exposure could suffer if consumer demand softens or if transaction volumes decline.
GME
Bullish
GameStop's pivot toward collectibles and retail footprint could benefit from hobby growth.
Bearish
Physical retail transformation and restructuring risks could weigh on fragile turnaround thesis.
AMZN
Bullish
Amazon (AMZN) stands to benefit from e-commerce market expansion and Prime-driven collectible sales.
Bearish
High valuation and competition risk across e-commerce and cloud could pressure returns.
NVDA
Bullish
NVIDIA (NVDA) is a primary beneficiary of the AI compute boom driving enterprise demand.
Bearish
Very strong consensus expectations price-in a lot of AI growth; downside if AI spend slows.
CVX
Bullish
Chevron (CVX) may benefit from stable oil demand and potential energy market strength.
Bearish
Energy price volatility or policy shifts could pressure margins and returns.
VZ
Bullish
Verizon (VZ) offers income stability and potential defensive exposure amid broader volatility.
Bearish
Legacy telecom exposure faces competition and capital intensity headwinds.
PLTR
Bullish
Palantir (PLTR) is positioned to monetize large data and analytics contracts if adoption scales.
Bearish
Execution and product adoption risk could slow growth relative to expectations.
MSTR
Bullish
MicroStrategy (MSTR) offers leveraged BTC exposure that can amplify upside in crypto rallies.
Bearish
Heavy Bitcoin exposure makes MicroStrategy (MSTR) volatile and sensitive to crypto drawdowns.
AMKR
Bullish
Amkor (AMKR) can benefit from rising semiconductor packaging demand and AI-driven capex cycles.
Bearish
Semiconductor supply-chain cyclicality could hit revenue and margins.
BTC
Bullish
Bitcoin (BTC) remains a major crypto store-of-value trade with long-term institutional interest.
Bearish
Regulatory risks, adoption uncertainty, and speculative flows can produce steep drawdowns.
ETH
Bullish
Ethereum (ETH) has broad ecosystem utility and remains central to DeFi and tokenization use cases.
Bearish
Protocol and scaling risks plus regulatory uncertainty could hinder growth.
RACE
Bullish
Ferrari (RACE) benefits from strong brand, pricing power, and collectible appeal in luxury autos.
Bearish
Luxury auto valuations are cyclical and depend on discretionary spending.
AGNC
Bullish
AGNC can be attractive for yield if financing costs stabilize and book values recover.
Bearish
Mortgage REITs (AGNC) face rate risk and net interest margin compression in volatile rate regimes.
PDI
Bullish
PIMCO Dynamic Income (PDI) offers active fixed-income exposure and distribution yield in lower-rate scenarios.
Bearish
Closed-end funds like PDI can trade at persistent discounts and are sensitive to rate moves.
PSA
Bullish
PSA benefits from soaring grading volumes and fee capture, creating a large services revenue stream.
Bearish
Any service bottlenecks or quality issues at a grading company would hurt confidence and volumes.
TCGPLAYER
Bullish
TCGplayer (owned by eBay) is a key liquidity venue for trading-card secondary markets.
Bearish
Platform concentration risk if eBay integration falters or if buyer sentiment softens.
People mentioned
AlexSteveAmitKevin O'LearyLeBron JamesMichael JordanTom BradyDerek JeterBrian KurthersRudyPhil HellmuthLogan PaulEvanMattChrisTannerRoySpencerDoug