steven fiorillo
Alternative Asset Weekly Ep 2
10/20/2025, 3:30:02 AM
Economic Summary
- Sports cards and memorabilia are experiencing parabolic price appreciation driven by new releases (Topps 25-26) and sealed product scarcity; individual sealed boxes are trading well above presale levels on secondary marketplaces like eBay (EBAY), indicating strong retail/speculator demand.
- High-end one-of-one purchases by wealthy buyers and funds (Kevin O'Leary/Wondershine) are institutionalizing the market, suggesting potential for pooled vehicles or ETFs that track rare-card baskets and sealed-product net asset values.
- Grading firms (PSA, BGS) materially impact price discovery: graded tens command large premiums, creating asymmetric returns between mint tens and lower grades and increasing the importance of grading supply/turnaround dynamics.
- Conventions and mainstream activations (Fanatics Fest, celebrity shops) are expanding audience and distribution channels beyond traditional local card shops, likely increasing long-term demand and commoditizing parts of the hobby.
- Marketplace infrastructure (e.g., eBay authentication for >$300 sales) is improving trust and liquidity, enabling larger transactions but also concentrating transactional flow on platforms that set verification rules and fees.
Bullish
- Strong immediate resale premiums point to robust collector demand for Topps 25-26.
- Institutional interest (Kevin O'Leary buys, possible ETF) legitimizes cards as alternative assets.
- Mainstream events (Fanatics Fest) and celebrity involvement broaden market awareness.
- Grading and authenticated marketplaces (eBay authentication) reduce fraud and enable higher-value transactions.
Bearish
- Market is parabolic and speculative, risking sharp corrections in alternative assets.
- Grading concentration (PSA/BGS) and opaque valuations can create liquidity and pricing risks.
- Secondary market markups (e.g., Topps boxes) may compress as more supply or waves arrive.
- High ticket one-of-ones are illiquid and rely on few buyers, increasing tail risk.
Bullish tickers
TOPPSEBAYFANATICS
Bearish tickers
TOPPSPANINIFANATICSPSABGS
TOPPS
Bullish
Strong presale demand and big secondary markups for Topps 25-26 Jumbo boxes suggest continued collector appetite and scarcity value.
Bearish
Sealed-product premiums could compress as additional waves/releases increase supply; licensing shifts (Panini losing rights) create winner-risk.
EBAY
Bullish
eBay authentication for higher-value sales reduces fraud, facilitating large secondary transactions and supporting liquidity for collectible markets.
Bearish
Higher in-person demand and froth may bypass eBay, and platform fees/authentication dynamics could pressure margins.
FANATICS
Bullish
Fanatics-driven events and product strategies mainstream memorabilia, driving broader consumer interest and large-scale conventions.
Bearish
Consolidation of distribution and event control could squeeze smaller shops and concentrate pricing power.
PANINI
Bullish
Established brand in other sports and memorabilia could limit downside despite license losses.
Bearish
Losing key licenses (basketball, football) may hurt Panini's market share and future release strategy.
PSA
Bullish
PSA grading consistently adds significant value to high-end cards, underpinning the premiums for graded tens.
Bearish
Concentration of grading power and perceived market-making by graders risks conflicts and opaque pricing.
BGS
Bullish
Beckett (BGS) remains a core alternative grader with recognized value for certain collectors and formats.
Bearish
Competition and grading reliability concerns could limit BGS’s premium capture.
People mentioned
Kevin O'LearyShohei OhtaniCooper FlagDylan HarperColin KnuppelLeBron JamesSteph CurryKlay ThompsonKobe BryantMichael JordanTom BradyDerek JeterKevin HartMichael RubinDana WhiteTriple HAlex