steven fiorillo
Behind The Numbers Ep2: With Kris Patel and Steven Fiorillo
10/28/2025, 12:27:55 AM
Economic Summary
- AI and automation are materially affecting hiring: large tech layoffs and reluctance to hire junior roles are increasing youth unemployment risk and could pressure social stability and consumer demand.
- Monetary policy outlook is shifting toward cuts: hosts expect two Fed cuts this year and possibly more next year, with political changes (a Trump-appointed Fed chair like Christopher Waller) potentially pushing rates lower into 2026–2027, which would ease refinancing for indebted small/mid caps.
- Market rotation from growth to value is underway in some names: Salesforce (CRM) has slowed revenue growth but is rapidly increasing EPS through buybacks, shifting its investment case toward value.
- Housing supply constraints and lower rates could unlock construction activity, benefiting fragmented building-supply roll-up opportunities (companies like BECN, GMS, XPO/GXO playbooks) as renovation and new builds accelerate.
Bullish
- Salesforce (CRM) is a cash-flow-rich company with accelerating EPS via aggressive buybacks, appearing undervalued.
- Amazon (AMZN) could beat low expectations and re-rate if results surprise.
- Alphabet (GOOGL) remains undervalued given persistent search growth and AI product tailwinds.
- Roll-up M&A strategies (e.g., XPO/GXO/Beacon play) can create large, consolidatable businesses when rates fall.
Bearish
- Rising unemployment risk from AI, automation, and layoffs could weaken consumer demand and labor markets.
- UnitedHealth (UNH) faces margin pressure and Medicare reimbursement changes, limiting near-term upside.
- SAP is trading at a high multiple relative to free cash flow, suggesting valuation risk.
- High-growth narratives dominate markets, leaving value stocks vulnerable to sentiment shifts and regulatory headwinds (e.g., antitrust limits on acquisitions).
Bullish tickers
CRMAMZNGOOGLXPOGXOBECN
Bearish tickers
UNHSAPHOOD
CRM
Bullish
Strong free cash flow and aggressive buybacks driving fast EPS growth; appears inexpensive relative to cash flow.
Bearish
Revenue growth has slowed materially, making valuation sensitive to growth expectations.
SAP
Bullish
Large enterprise footprint and software moat could support long-term durability.
Bearish
Trades at a high multiple (mentioned ~38x on free cash flow) relative to peers and cash generation.
UNH
2 price targets
230360
Bullish
Structurally strong managed care business with long-term growth, though recovery may take years.
Bearish
Facing multi-year margin pressure from Medicare reimbursement changes and regulatory/administrative headwinds.
PLTR
1 price targets
190
Bullish
Large government and commercial contracts; cited price level of $190 per share in discussion.
Bearish
High expectation stock with volatility; valuation can swing with contract news and sentiment.
AMZN
Bullish
Seen as a potential upside surprise given low expectations and multiple growing business lines.
Bearish
Low expectations are already priced in; could be sensitive to macro slowdown.
GOOGL
Bullish
Search continues to grow and AI initiatives (Gemini) reinvigorate the business, implying undervaluation.
Bearish
Late-to-market AI timing concerns previously weighed on sentiment.
MSFT
Bullish
Strong OpenAI partnership and enterprise footprint support continued growth.
Bearish
High expectations around AI partnerships could be a source of downside if execution falters.
AAPL
Bullish
Large product ecosystem and services growth remain tailwinds.
Bearish
Mature hardware business faces cyclical demand risks.
META
Bullish
Strong top-line growth and AI monetization potential make it attractive.
Bearish
AI/content spend and execution risks could pressure margins.
PYPL
Bullish
Good value play for investors focused on cash-flow and fundamentals.
Bearish
Competitive payments landscape could limit upside.
HOOD
Bullish
High growth rate (~50% cited) underpins premium multiple for growth investors.
Bearish
Very high PE (~195 noted) makes it vulnerable to sentiment shifts.
COST
Bullish
Included in EPS comparison showing relative strength; resilient retail franchise.
WMT
Bullish
Trading at higher multiples despite similar growth, highlighting valuation dispersion.
AZO
Bullish
Used as a comp for companies that can sustain FCF-driven buybacks and re-rate.
XPO
2 price targets
3125
Bullish
Roll-up success story historically produced large shareholder gains.
Bearish
Past volatility after roll-up strategies can lead to sharp corrections.
GXO
Bullish
Spinout/related company to XPO with operational focus; part of the roll-up discussion.
WM
Bullish
Waste Management highlighted as a durable, profitable business in long-term examples.
BECN
Bullish
Beacon Roofing acquisition cited as evidence of roll-up growth potential in building supplies.
GMS
Bullish
Potential takeover target in a fragmented building-distributor market (discussed in roll-up thesis).
URI
Bullish
United Rentals referenced as a prior roll-up success example.
ADBE
Bullish
Strong product portfolio and enterprise customer base.
Bearish
Regulatory scrutiny (e.g., blocked Figma deal) limits bolt-on acquisition opportunities.
PM
Bullish
Used as a comparable for how strong cash-flow businesses can trade like tobacco names.
People mentioned
ChrisStevenMarc BenioffVivek RamaswamyAndrew YangSundar PichaiDonald TrumpChristopher WallerAlex KarpBrad JacobsJared KushnerMark NewtonRayAmitZoran Mandami