steven fiorillo
BMNR Shold Follow Ethereum's Rally And I Am Still Buying Both
10/12/2025, 9:18:44 PM
Economic Summary
- Ethereum dropped ~23% over the week, falling from ~4,686 to a low near ~3,593; the speaker purchased ETH around 4,000–3,800 during that dip, indicating conviction despite volatility.
- Protocol supply dynamics: Ethereum's maximum annual issuance is capped at 1.51% but has been averaging ~0.09% annually; EIP-style fee burns from transactions can create deflationary pressure as on-chain volume rises.
- Ethereum ecosystem scale: roughly $767 billion in assets hosted and over 80% of tokenized assets on Ethereum, including ~$10.2 billion in non-stablecoin tokenized assets (treasuries, credit markets, yield funds), underpinning long-term utility.
- BMNR (Tom Lee-led vehicle) strategically pivoted to an Ethereum treasury, targeting ~5% ETH ownership, using equity raises to buy ETH and pursue staking/restaking yields to boost shareholder returns and potential NAV premium.
- Geopolitical tariff and rare-earth news primarily affects semiconductor makers and ETFs (e.g., NVDA, AMD, INTC, AVGO, SMH) rather than the core Ethereum bull thesis, per the speaker.
- Corporate adoption: Mastercard, PayPal, and Shopify building stablecoins on Ethereum layer-2s increases potential transaction volume, which could accentuate fee burns and strengthen ETH's scarcity narrative.
- Legislative developments (the referenced 'Genius Act') provide a clearer pathway to regulation for tokenization and could accelerate institutional and real-world asset tokenization adoption.
Bullish
- Ethereum's issuance is capped at 1.51% but recent average issuance is ~0.09%, and transaction fee burns can make ETH deflationary.
- Large on-chain TVL (about $767 billion) and >80% of tokenized assets live on Ethereum supports long-term demand.
- BMNR pivoting to an Ethereum treasury, staking/restaking and aiming to own ~5% ETH could create NAV upside.
- Major payment and commerce companies building stablecoins on Ethereum layer-2 (Mastercard, PayPal, Shopify) could drive transaction volume and burns.
- Active buying from large investors (Tom Lee / BMNR) provides supportive demand during dips.
Bearish
- Geopolitical moves (tariffs, rare earth controls) introduce macro risk and volatility for crypto and markets.
- Ethereum and related plays remain highly volatile — ETH fell ~23% in the week.
- BMNR's strategy depends on successful equity raises and execution; tokenization adoption is uncertain.
Bullish tickers
ETHBMNRMAPYPLSHOP
Bearish tickers
NVDAAMDINTCAVGOSMH
ETH
Bullish
Low actual issuance (~0.09% vs 1.51% cap), fee burns, large TVL (~$767B), and major companies building on layer-2 support deflationary thesis.
Bearish
Subject to broad market volatility and geopolitical risk; saw a ~23% weekly decline.
BMNR
Bullish
Pivot to an Ethereum treasury targeting ~5% ETH ownership, staking/restaking income and low overhead could generate NAV upside and premium to NAV.
Bearish
Execution and financing risk for its pivot to an ETH treasury; dependent on tokenization and successful equity raises.
XRP
Bullish
Included as part of the speaker's personal holdings, indicating conviction or diversification.
Bearish
Not extensively discussed; implied exposure carries crypto market volatility.
BTC
Bullish
Mentioned as a minor holding; no detailed bull case provided.
Bearish
Speaker holds a small amount; like other cryptos, vulnerable to large market swings.
NVDA
Bullish
Could be materially impacted (positively or negatively) by rare-earth controls and tariff developments.
Bearish
Exposed to geopolitical supply risks tied to rare earths and tariffs.
AMD
Bullish
Mentioned as a semiconductor likely affected by rare-earth and tariff developments.
Bearish
Subject to semiconductor supply-chain and rare-earth related geopolitical risks.
INTC
Bullish
Cited among semiconductor names tied to rare-earths sensitivity.
Bearish
Vulnerable to macro and supply-chain disruptions from trade/tariff news.
AVGO
Bullish
Named as a semiconductor potentially affected by rare-earth policy shifts.
Bearish
Broadcom exposure to global trade frictions and input constraints could hurt performance.
SMH
Bullish
ETF that would reflect semiconductor sector moves from tariffs or rare-earth developments.
Bearish
Semiconductor ETF sensitive to geopolitical and supply risks from rare-earth controls.
MA
Bullish
Building stablecoins on Ethereum layer-2 could increase transaction volume and support ETH utility.
Bearish
Adoption of on-chain stablecoins and layer-2s is uncertain and timing may be slow.
PYPL
Bullish
Play on increased on-chain payments volume as PayPal builds stablecoin on Ethereum layer-2.
Bearish
Crypto/stablecoin initiatives face regulatory and adoption hurdles.
SHOP
Bullish
Shopify building stablecoin infrastructure on Ethereum layer-2 could boost transactional demand.
Bearish
E-commerce token initiatives dependent on merchant and consumer adoption.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpXi JinpingTom LeeTannerAmidMichael SaylorMitchAlex Nostalgia