steven fiorillo
Earnings Season Is Here, SOFI, PYPL, META, AMZN, and more
10/27/2025, 11:46:13 PM
Economic Summary
- The market is pricing in Fed easing: high odds of a 25bp cut in October and another in December, implying policy rates moving lower into 2026–27 which would boost credit originations and refinancing (positive for lenders like SOFI).
- Lower cost of capital and expected rate cuts should unlock housing and builder activity next year, increasing origination volumes and benefiting fintech lenders and mortgage originators.
- US LNG export dynamics are tightening: Cheniere controls roughly half of US LNG export capacity, giving it dominant market share and structural pricing power in global gas markets.
Bullish
- SoFi likely to beat consensus (triple beat) with accelerating members and big upside from business banking/wealth custody.
- Meta appears set to significantly outpace analyst expectations this quarter.
- Amazon can materially improve margins through AI and robotics-driven efficiency gains.
- Cheniere (LNG) dominates US LNG exports, giving it structural advantage in global LNG market.
Bearish
- SoFi could see a sharp pop on earnings followed by a sell-off given high volatility and large short interest.
- PayPal's buybacks haven't restored momentum; without stronger capital return like a dividend, sentiment may stay weak.
- Amazon's scale and low margins leave it vulnerable if AI/automation doesn't deliver expected margin expansion quickly.
Bullish tickers
SOFIMETAAMZNLNG
Bearish tickers
PYPLSOFIAMZN
SOFI
1 price targets
35
Bullish
Expected triple beat on revenue and EPS, accelerating member growth toward one million, plus large upside from business banking, wealth custody, and benefit from Fed cuts.
Bearish
High volatility and large short interest could produce a sharp post-earnings sell-off; business banking upside not yet realized.
PYPL
Bullish
Revenue has grown year-over-year since 2015; a dividend or reallocation could restore investor confidence.
Bearish
Buybacks haven't revived the stock; management allocation seen as insufficient and sentiment remains weak.
AMZN
Bullish
Large opportunity to pick up margin via AI, robotics, and cost cuts, evidenced by announced office job reductions.
Bearish
Very low margins historically make Amazon sensitive to execution risk if AI/robotics fail to deliver efficiencies quickly.
META
Bullish
Analyst expectations are too low and the company is positioned to blow out the quarter.
AAPL
MSFT
GOOGL
BA
XOM
CVX
MA
V
HOOD
Bullish
Robinhood remains a reference point for retail flow; could drive retail interest in similar fintech names like SOFI.
NVDA
Bullish
NVIDIA events (GTC) are market-moving for AI thematic exposure and investor interest.
TSLA
LNG
Bullish
Cheniere (LNG) owns roughly half of US LNG export capacity, giving it durable market share and pricing leverage.
NEXT
VENTURE GLOBAL
Bullish
Venture Global is a major non-supermajor LNG developer; industry dynamics may favor focused LNG independents.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpJerome PowellAnthony NotoElon MuskShohei OhtaniDan NilesTodd WilsonMatt WatsonTannerMattChrisStephenAmitAndrew