steven fiorillo
Inside The Numbers with Kris Patel & Steven Fiorillo
11/3/2025, 11:30:41 PM
Economic Summary
- Buying newer homes can reduce near-term maintenance costs compared with older homes that need roof, piping, electrical, and HVAC replacements; however, many 2021–2022 speculative new builds are being marked down due to poor demand and low build quality.
- The speakers criticized the U.S. education system, arguing it moves goalposts for career advice and lacks essential financial literacy, leaving young adults exposed to high student debt and credit-card risks.
- AI and LLM tools are increasingly used in finance and project work, but raw LLMs remain poor at granular fundamental analysis, while specialized AI tools can improve productivity for tasks like spreadsheet work and project management.
- Fiserv (FISV) is discussed as a fintech incumbent: technically oversold, with recent guidance cuts from management, durable switching costs for customers, strong free cash flow, buybacks, and a path to valuation mean-reversion if growth stabilizes.
- The payments and cloud markets show structural tailwinds — cashless payments growth supports backbone providers, and there is a very large cloud/AI CapEx backlog (cited ~$700 billion across major cloud players) supporting long-term demand for cloud infrastructure.
Bullish
- Fiserv trades at depressed multiples with solid free cash flow and buybacks, enabling potential mean reversion.
- Meta and Amazon look attractively valued given strong cash generation and long-term AI/cloud investments.
- Payments infrastructure benefits from secular cashless trend, favoring incumbents with high switching costs (FISV).
- Verizon generates substantial EBITDA and can service debt, offering defensive value.
Bearish
- Fiserv experienced a sharp revenue slowdown and guidance cuts, raising concerns about sustained growth and debt (FISV).
- Pharmaceuticals face patent expirations, regulatory and geopolitical risk that can crush returns (PFE, NVO).
- Many newly built homes are poor quality and facing markdowns amid weak demand.
- AI/LLM-driven algos can overreact and LLMs are currently weak at rigorous fundamental analysis.
Bullish tickers
FISVMETAAMZNAVGOVZUNHPFEBMY
Bearish tickers
FISVPFENVO
FISV
2 price targets
100135
Bullish
Durable switching costs, strong free cash flow and buybacks at depressed multiples create mean-reversion opportunity.
Bearish
Revenue growth collapsed recently, guidance cut and sizable debt create near-term valuation risk.
META
Bullish
Generates massive EBITDA and free cash flow; trading at deep discount relative to growth profile.
Bearish
High capex and increased debt could pressure multiples despite strong fundamentals.
AMZN
Bullish
Strong cloud backlog and improving free cash flow profile after one-time tax adjustments.
Bearish
Earnings misses can trigger algos and short-term sell-offs despite one-time tax items.
PFE
Bullish
Attractive dividend and large free cash flow make it a dividend-oriented value pick.
Bearish
Pharma exposed to patent cliffs, geopolitical and policy risk affecting margins.
BMY
Bullish
Used as a dividend holding; seen as undervalued on free cash flow.
Bearish
Pharma sector risks and complex drug/patent dynamics pose downside.
NVO
Bullish
No specific bullish case presented in the transcript.
Bearish
Noted as suffering heavy drawdowns; exposed to sector-specific pressures and sentiment risk.
VZ
Bullish
Generates ~50B EBITDA; strong cash flow supports debt servicing and potential value.
Bearish
High debt load is often cited as a concern for telecoms.
UNH
Bullish
Mentioned as a top buy in Q3 by value investors alongside other large names.
Bearish
Not directly critiqued in detail here.
AVGO
Bullish
Broadcom showing strong growth metrics, outperforming peers in EPS growth.
Bearish
None specifically argued in transcript.
OSCR
Bullish
Pure-play ACA exposure could rally materially if subsidies/extension improves.
Bearish
Dependent on ACA subsidy policy risk which could swing shares both ways.
MOH
Bullish
Could benefit from policy changes to ACA subsidies (contextual).
Bearish
Mentioned only in policy context; no deep critique.
CRM
Bullish
Example of steady compounder; long-term EPS growth preferred over one-off spikes.
Bearish
Growth slows as company matures; larger revenue base makes high growth harder.
AMD
Bullish
Mentioned as a surprising value play in current market constructions.
Bearish
None explicitly articulated; noted as being labeled 'value' in some indices.
People mentioned
Josh BrownSeth KlarmanLarry FinkDan SchulmanSusan LeitherChrisSteveMark ZuckerbergJared KushnerDonald TrumpSam