steven fiorillo
Saturday Night Investing And More With The Boys
10/24/2025, 9:45:12 PM
Economic Summary
- Stablecoin issuers collect USD deposits and buy short-duration U.S. Treasuries, increasing demand for short-dated paper and potentially enabling Treasury operations (e.g., Operation Twist) that push down long-term yields.
- If long-term yields fall (via Treasury action and stablecoin demand), corporate refinancing costs could drop materially, helping highly leveraged companies (e.g., Verizon) and REITs by lowering interest expense and stimulating credit activity.
- Wider adoption of tokenization and real-world asset on-chain markets is expected to be large but will require substantial infrastructure and regulatory work; timeframe likely medium-to-long term.
Bullish
- Amazon's delivery smart glasses could materially improve driver efficiency and margins (AMZN).
- Robinhood's prediction markets and sports-betting flows could drive a blowout quarter (HOOD).
- Tokenization, stablecoins, and Ethereum staking may drive large institutional demand for crypto assets.
Bearish
- Tesla (TSLA) called very overvalued by a participant.
- Stablecoin issuers (e.g., Tether) require audits — reserve/credit risk for stablecoins.
- Prediction markets / Tops Now and similar products are speculative and risky.
Bullish tickers
AMZNHOODETH
Bearish tickers
TSLATETHERTOPSNOW
AMZN
1 price targets
1000
Bullish
Delivery smart-glasses, stronger operating margins in AWS, and long-term conviction (speaker expects eventual $1,000/share).
Bearish
Short-term earnings or margin misses could pressure shares; watch operating margins and margins for AWS.
HOOD
Bullish
Prediction markets and sports-betting could generate substantial incremental trading and payments revenue, driving a blowout quarter.
Bearish
Reliance on nascent prediction-market revenue is uncertain and regulatory/market adoption risk exists.
SOFI
Bullish
Improved UI and trading platform fixes under Anthony Noto could unlock material trading revenue growth.
Bearish
Execution and competitive pressures in retail trading and lending remain risks.
RKT
Bullish
Earnings focus on mortgage originations and servicing; outcomes hinge on refinance and lending trends.
Bearish
Mortgage/financing businesses remain sensitive to rate moves and housing cycle risk.
GOOGL
Bullish
Google Cloud margin expansion would be a key upside catalyst for valuation and cash flow.
Bearish
Cloud margin pressures could weigh on valuation if operating margins don't improve.
MSFT
Bullish
Azure/Cloud operating margin expansion remains a core driver of long-term cash flow growth.
Bearish
Cloud competition and margin mix could cap near-term upside.
META
Bullish
Ad recovery and product monetization improvements could drive upside.
Bearish
Ad weakness or monetization issues could pressure results.
COIN
Bullish
Greater institutional adoption of crypto and trading volumes support long-term growth prospects.
Bearish
Regulatory and crypto market volatility pose material risks to trading revenue.
AAPL
Bullish
Mentioned among names to watch; strong ecosystem and monetization cited as reasons for interest.
Bearish
Not discussed in depth; typical risks include product cycle and macro softness.
LMND
Bullish
Options activity indicates some participants use it tactically; not a core thesis discussed.
Bearish
Execution and capital allocation risks in insurance-tech businesses.
AVGO
Bullish
Mentioned as an earnings target for options/earnings plays previously used by participants.
Bearish
Cyclical semiconductors face demand volatility.
PFE
Bullish
Held for dividend income; participant cited pharma dividend names as part of income strategy.
BMY
Bullish
Held for dividend income; mentioned alongside Pfizer as dividend plays.
BMNR
Bullish
Named by a participant as a position they bought; specific thesis not detailed.
NEBIAS
Bullish
Referenced as part of options/put activity by a participant; unclear company/ticker status.
CHIME
Bullish
Participant said they bought Chime; company is referenced as a consumer fintech interest.
REDDIT
Bullish
Participant expressed interest in buying Reddit on attractive post-change monetization metrics and ARPU growth.
Bearish
If/when public, advertising execution and ARPU scaling are risks.
People mentioned
Matt MoneyStephenTevisChris PatelTannerRobAnthony NotoMackenzie DernCiryl GaneTom AspinallDaniel CraigBen KingsleyCillian MurphyClint EastwoodDaniel RadcliffeIdris ElbaJack BlackJason MomoaJames McAvoyJeff BridgesJeremy RennerJoaquin PhoenixRobert De NiroAl PacinoDavid ChiafriniSergioMr. Beast