steven fiorillo
Saturday Night Investing With The Boys (Stocks, Crypto, Alternative Assets, and More)
10/12/2025, 6:20:07 AM
Economic Summary
- Massive crypto liquidations (~$19B) were triggered by social media volatility and extreme leverage, exposing fragility in retail-derived leverage (implicates exchanges like HOOD and COIN) and likely prompting outflows from platforms that experienced outages.
- Rate expectations remain critical: hosts expect Fed cuts soon, which would lower borrowing costs, enable refinancing for high-debt firms (e.g., VZ), boost buybacks/dividends, and potentially trigger a broad market rebound.
- A proposed 'robot tax' (political discussion) could emerge as AI/automation scale increases, potentially compressing margins for companies that heavily automate — a policy risk for beneficiaries like AMZN and NVDA.
- Energy infrastructure remains a structural need; legal/contract disputes (e.g., Venture Global / VG arbitration exposure ~$4–5B) create near-term overhangs but do not necessarily alter long-term cash-flow driven value in LNG/energy names.
- Rising delinquencies in auto loan ABS point to weakening among lower-end consumers; while not mortgage-level systemic risk, it can reduce auto demand, increase dealer inventories, and ripple into manufacturing and services.
Bullish
- Nvidia (NVDA) benefits from AI/data-center demand — analysts expect further upside (target discussed ~$250).
- Amazon (AMZN) can expand margins through AWS efficiencies and growing ad business.
- Verizon (VZ) viewed as an income/utility-style play with refinancing upside on rate cuts and an attractive dividend.
Bearish
- Crypto leverage/derivatives led to ~$19B of liquidations, risking platform outages and customer flight (hits exchanges like HOOD, COIN).
- Overextended valuations in some AI/data-center and niche tech names after big runs — buying strength risky.
- Auto loan ABS delinquencies rising; consumer weakness could cascade to credit stress for banks and asset-backed markets.
Bullish tickers
NVDAAMZNVZGOOGLMSFT
Bearish tickers
HOODCOINMSTR
NVDA
1 price targets
250
Bullish
Dominant AI/data-center position and strong demand make NVDA the top Mag 7 pick; team called $250 next-year target.
Bearish
Short-term volatility could persist despite AI tailwinds; high multiples create downside risk on sentiment shocks.
AMZN
Bullish
AWS margin expansion plus fast-growing advertising platform represent underappreciated drivers of profit and multiple expansion.
Bearish
Retail/consumer weakness could pressure parts of the business; highly valued growth segments may already be priced in.
VZ
1 price targets
50
Bullish
Telco-as-utility narrative, strong free cash flow, high dividend yield and refinancing tailwinds on rate cuts make VZ attractive for income investors.
Bearish
High legacy debt makes Verizon sensitive to funding/operational risks and leaves limited upside if execution falters.
HOOD
Bullish
If technical issues are resolved, Robinhood's retail reach could recover, but reputational damage is the primary near-term risk.
Bearish
Operational outages during extreme volatility damage trust; may lose customers and assets after the liquidation event.
COIN
Bullish
Exchange demand rebounds with crypto recoveries; long-term crypto adoption supports revenue opportunities.
Bearish
Product choices enabling high leverage (50x) amplify liquidation risk and regulatory scrutiny; outages undermine confidence.
MSTR
1 price targets
10
Bullish
If Bitcoin rallies, MSTR offers leveraged exposure and potential outsized gains for holders.
Bearish
Deeply tied to Bitcoin price: prolonged flat Bitcoin could drive share price below $10 according to the discussion.
PLTR
Bullish
Execution on government/corporate contracts and resolution of reporting noise could restore valuation.
Bearish
PR/security reporting and prototype concerns can create headline risk and share volatility.
VG
Bullish
Long-term LNG infrastructure generates stable cash flows; resolving legal overhang could re-rate the stock given strong contracted cash generation.
Bearish
Venture Global faces arbitration/contract claims (~$4–5B exposure) that are an overhang and can pressure shares.
ET
Bullish
Pipelines and midstream assets have high barriers to entry, stable cash flows, and appeal in a rate-cut, income-seeking environment.
Bearish
Energy infrastructure profitability can be cyclical and exposed to commodity and regulatory shifts.
People mentioned
AmitMattChrisAlexSteveDonald TrumpAndrew YangDan SchulmanElon MuskMike TroutLeBron JamesJerome PowellBrian ArmstrongMark ZuckerbergPaul Tudor JonesTom LeeVlad TenevMichael SaylorPalmer LuckeyJoseph CarlsonCody BellingerNateSuki