steven fiorillo
Stock Market Crashes, Trump vs. China (Raw Thoughts)
10/10/2025, 11:14:02 PM
Economic Summary
- Markets fell sharply on the day: overall market down 2.71% and the NASDAQ down 3.56%, with after-hours losses widening volatility.
- President Trump posted that China plans broad export controls on rare earths effective November 1, 2025, and threatened a 100% US tariff, escalating trade tensions and market uncertainty.
- Rare earths and other materials are central to the AI and data-center supply chain; control of these inputs would give pricing power and materially affect chipmakers such as NVDA.
- Q3 earnings are already finalized and likely unaffected; Q4 impacts are uncertain, but the speaker expects policy moves ahead of the 2026 election to aim at supporting the economy.
- Despite short-term volatility, the market is still up over 10% year-to-date and remains well above the pandemic lows, reinforcing a long-term, buy-the-dip investment stance.
Bullish
- Long-term AI demand supports chipmakers like NVDA.
- Election-year policy and incentives could boost domestic manufacturing and technology sectors.
- Historical pattern: dips from trade/tariff scares have recovered, offering buying opportunities.
Bearish
- China's broad export controls on rare earths could disrupt supply chains and raise costs for chipmakers like NVDA.
- A threatened 100% US tariff on China risks escalation, higher input costs, and global trade disruption.
- Concentrated portfolios can suffer sharp losses from sudden policy-driven volatility and social-media-driven headlines.
Bullish tickers
NVDA
Bearish tickers
NVDA
NVDA
Bullish
Nvidia's leadership in GPUs and strong long-term AI demand make current volatility a potential buying opportunity; onshoring incentives could benefit domestic chipmakers.
Bearish
China export controls and threatened tariffs could tighten supply of critical materials, raising costs and pressuring Nvidia's margins and sentiment.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpXi Jinping