steven fiorillo
Tesla Earnings Live
10/22/2025, 11:33:37 PM
Economic Summary
- Tesla reported Q3 EPS of $0.50 versus $0.55 expected (a miss) while revenue beat at 28.6 (versus 26.7 expected), showing top-line resilience but margin pressure.
- The company generated record free cash flow of roughly $4 billion and ended the quarter with over $41 billion in cash and investments, enabling increased CapEx and AI bets.
- CapEx is projected around $9 billion for the current year with a substantial increase expected in 2026 to fund production expansion and AI initiatives including Optimus.
- Other income fell sequentially due to mark-to-market swings in Bitcoin holdings (gain of $80M in Q3 vs $284M in Q2), highlighting crypto-related P&L volatility.
- Energy business demand remains strong: Megapack/Megablock shipments ramping, new Megapack 4 aims to output ~35 kV directly, and residential solar/panel production restarting in Q1.
- Autonomy metrics: Austin robo-fleet covered >250k autonomous miles (no one in driver seat in parts of Austin) and Bay Area >1M miles with safety drivers; Tesla expects unsupervised operation in parts of Austin within months.
- Supply-chain and semiconductor strategy: Tesla is developing AI5 ASICs and will initially use both TSMC and Samsung for chip fabrication, while a $16.5B Samsung Taylor deal underpins capacity discussions.
Bullish
- Tesla claims leadership in real-world AI; unsupervised FSD and robo-taxi rollout could unlock massive demand.
- Megapack/Powerwall energy storage demand is strong; Megapack 3/4 innovations could expand grid capacity.
- Record free cash flow (~$4B) and cash/investments >$41B support capex and AI investments.
- Custom in-house chip roadmap (AI5) and partnerships aim to accelerate autonomy and lower unit costs.
- Optimism on scaling vehicle production toward 3M annualized units and new CyberCab optimized for autonomy.
Bearish
- Q3 EPS missed consensus ( $0.50 vs $0.55 ), raising near-term profitability concerns.
- Loss of EV regulatory credits and weaker Q4 vehicle revenue risk lower deliveries.
- Optimus faces major engineering, dexterity, and supply-chain challenges delaying commercialization.
- Governance fight over Musk compensation/voting control creates execution and headline risk.
- FSD deployment faces regulatory, insurance, and market-acceptance hurdles despite technical progress.
Bullish tickers
TSLA
Bearish tickers
TSLA
TSLA
Bullish
Leader in real-world AI with scaling plans for unsupervised FSD/robo-taxi, strong energy demand, record free cash flow, and large cash reserves.
Bearish
EPS miss, loss of regulatory credits, governance and regulatory/insurance hurdles for FSD, and Optimus execution risks could pressure shares.
NVDA
Bullish
NVIDIA GPUs remain important for large-scale training and general-purpose datacenter workloads, supporting continued demand.
Bearish
Tesla's move toward custom ASICs and Samsung/TSMC chip strategy could reduce some Nvidia demand for Tesla-specific workloads.
TSM
Bullish
TSMC remains a key foundry partner for advanced nodes and will be part of Tesla's initial AI5 manufacturing plan.
Bearish
Competition for Tesla chip volume from Samsung could diversify Tesla's foundry mix and shift some future orders away from TSMC.
SSNLF
Bullish
Samsung is already manufacturing Tesla AI4 and is included in AI5 plans; a large Taylor fab deal supports capacity.
Bearish
Samsung must meet yield and cost targets to fully satisfy Tesla AI timelines; execution risk remains vs TSMC.
LMND
Bullish
An insurer willing to underwrite FSD liability (Lemonade) could accelerate consumer acceptance and FSD adoption.
Bearish
Lemonade's offer to insure FSD users is unconfirmed as a broader partnership with Tesla; market uptake uncertain.
BTC
Bullish
Crypto holdings can produce sizable mark-to-market gains in favorable quarters, boosting other income.
Bearish
Bitcoin mark-to-market volatility reduced Tesla's other income in the quarter, exposing earnings to crypto swings.
People mentioned
Elon MuskVaibhav TanejaAshokDonald TrumpIraKathleenJoeEmmanuelAdamDanWaltColinSteveAmitMikeBrian