steven fiorillo
Tesla Earnings (Raw Thoughts) and what I have done this week
10/23/2025, 3:55:39 AM
Economic Summary
- Tesla (TSLA) reported auto sales growth but shrinking auto gross margins as cost of revenue rose faster than revenue, and regulatory credits for vehicles (ended September) and energy (ending year) are phasing out, implying near-term profit headwinds unless FSD/Optimus or pricing offsets arrive.
- Energy business showed strong top-line growth (~44% mentioned) but with nearly matching increases in cost of goods, raising the possibility that growth hasn't translated into substantial incremental profit for Tesla.
- AI infrastructure demand appears broad-based and accelerating: companies are continuing to spend on chips and AI infrastructure, which supports semiconductor leaders (e.g., NVDA) and large cloud/AI integrators (e.g., AMZN).
- Income-focused strategies highlighted dividend-harvest buys—CTO Realty Growth (trading under book with ~10% yield), Verizon (VZ) with a ~6.6% yield, and PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI)—indicating opportunities in high-yield/discounted income securities amid the current market.
Bullish
- Tesla built a dominant EV position versus legacy automakers and retains strong brand/cult stock dynamics.
- AI infrastructure demand looks durable, supporting chip makers and cloud/AI suppliers (NVDA, AMZN).
- Income and value plays (CTO, VZ, PDI) offer attractive yields and discounted valuations for dividend harvesting.
Bearish
- Tesla's auto gross margin declined as cost of revenue rose faster than sales, and regulatory credits are expiring.
- High growth in energy segment came with nearly equivalent cost increases, risking low or negative incremental margins.
- Beyond Meat received negative consumer reaction; product taste and adoption concerns could limit growth.
Bullish tickers
TSLANVDAAMZNCTOVZPDIKOBMNR
Bearish tickers
TSLABYND
TSLA
Bullish
Unmatched execution building EV leadership and brand loyalty; FSD subscription/Optimus remain large potential long-term revenue streams.
Bearish
Rising cost of revenue reduced auto gross margins; regulatory credits expiring; FSD/Optimus roadmap unclear.
CTO
2 price targets
17.4316.15
Bullish
Trading below book value with ~9–10% yield; viewed as an income/value opportunity.
Bearish
Chart technicals described as poor; small regional REIT with less scale than larger peers.
VZ
Bullish
Purchased for dividend harvesting; seen as misunderstood with a ~6.6–6.7% yield and attractive under $40.
PDI
Bullish
Included in dividend harvesting buys as an income vehicle (PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund).
STWD
Bullish
Referenced as 'Starwood' buy in dividend harvesting strategy (interpreted as Starwood Property Trust).
BMNR
Bullish
Added position and plans to build it out over time; long-term speculative buy alongside Ethereum exposure.
AMZN
Bullish
Seen as a long-term AI and robotics beneficiary; potential to materially expand margins and scale revenue.
NVDA
Bullish
Central to AI infrastructure demand; many companies are sourcing NVIDIA chips.
Bearish
Author is pausing further buys (taking chips off), but remains exposed to AI cycle risks.
BYND
Bearish
Personal negative reaction to product taste and low consumer enthusiasm noted.
KO
Bullish
Coca-Cola reported solid organic growth and could benefit from AI-driven margin optimization.
People mentioned
Elon MuskDonald TrumpTom LeeAndy JassyMark ZuckerbergSundar PichaiNancy PelosiDavid PortnoyLogan PaulAndrew SchulzChris PatelAmitMattStevenTyUzi