steven fiorillo
The Palantir & BMNR Episode (Raw Thoughts)
11/5/2025, 12:25:32 AM
Economic Summary
- A momentum-driven trade entered at $16 in Jan 2024 has returned roughly 1100%, underscoring how momentum (not fundamentals) can drive large equity moves and investor positioning.
- Valuation is the main impediment: the speaker warns richly valued names can disappoint and move sideways after earnings, and that broad tech weakness hit many leaders in 2022 (Amazon AMZN, Alphabet GOOGL, Microsoft MSFT), with Apple (AAPL) taking a notable haircut.
Bullish
- Strong momentum drove an entry at $16 in Jan 2024 and produced ~1100% gains.
- Momentum can continue to guide the trade and extend the rally despite fundamentals.
Bearish
- Valuation is rich; stock may disappoint and trade sideways after earnings.
- Short thesis expecting a drop to $40 or $30 lacks fundamental support.
Bullish tickers
THIS_STOCK
Bearish tickers
AAPL
THIS_STOCK
2 price targets
4030
Bullish
Momentum-driven trade entered at $16 in Jan 2024, up ~1100%; momentum guided entry and continues to guide positioning.
Bearish
Valuation is a key impediment; may disappoint and trade sideways after earnings despite momentum.
AAPL
Bullish
Was previously one of the stocks holding the market up through 2021.
Bearish
Took a haircut after years of propping up the market; experienced downside in 2022.
AMZN
Bearish
Mentioned as one of the big tech names that pulled back in 2022.
GOOGL
Bearish
Mentioned among major tech stocks that suffered declines in 2022.
MSFT
Bearish
Cited as a large tech name that lost its earlier strong performance during 2022.
People mentioned
Frank