steven fiorillo
What's Going On In The Market
10/23/2025, 10:30:30 PM
Economic Summary
- Palantir extended a partnership with Lumen Technologies for up to $200 million, underscoring continued government and enterprise AI/analytics contract demand (PLTR, LUMN).
- Amazon (AMZN) could reach roughly $1.04 trillion in revenue by 2029 per street estimates; at a potential 20% operating margin this implies ~ $200B operating income and major buyback/capital deployment optionality.
- Data center and AI infrastructure expansion is a central market theme: partnerships and announced projects have driven substantial market cap increases for NVIDIA, Broadcom, AMD and Oracle, making the sector a concentration risk.
- Macro risks include CPI prints and debt ceiling/government shutdown dynamics; market expects CPI around 3% and upcoming prints will influence Fed expectations and rate-sensitive assets.
- Oracle’s debt issuance and large financing activity (tens of billions reported) highlights funding strategies for large cloud/data center investments, but also increases leverage concerns for ORCL.
- Long-duration Treasuries and related ETFs (e.g., TLT) are positioned as a hedge if the Fed pivots to cutting rates; falling yields would boost TLT price and provide income (~4% current yield discussed).
Bullish
- Palantir continues winning deals (Lumen partnership up to $200M) and remains a strong enterprise/data analytics franchise.
- Amazon has a credible path to much higher operating margins via robotics and AI, enabling potential trillion-dollar revenue by 2029.
- Zoom can expand beyond video into enterprise telephony and AI-driven services, creating a potential re-rating.
- NVIDIA and other AI infrastructure leaders (NVDA, AMD, AVGO) remain core market drivers given OpenAI/data center demand.
- TLT (long-duration bonds) could perform strongly if the Fed cuts and rates decline, offering yield plus price appreciation.
Bearish
- A hiccup or slowdown in the data center build-out could trigger a large market correction given leverage in related names.
- Oracle tapping large amounts of debt (reported ~$38–40B) is a bearish signal for its capital structure and risk profile.
- Rapid robotics/AI automation could create significant social and employment disruption, weighing on consumer demand and policy risks.
- Delta‑neutral option buying headlines (Jane Street etc.) can be misleading and do not reflect genuine retail-driven equity conviction.
Bullish tickers
PLTRAMZNZMNVDATLT
Bearish tickers
ORCLSMCI
PLTR
Bullish
Continuing to land sizable contracts (e.g., Lumen deal) demonstrates strong commercial/government traction.
Bearish
Valuation concerns remain despite deal flow; concentrated positioning risks if AI narrative cools.
LUMN
Bullish
Partnering with data/AI firms (e.g., Palantir) can create meaningful revenue opportunities.
Bearish
Exposure to regional/regulatory risks tied to infrastructure and refinery/regional energy headlines.
SMCI
1 price targets
40
Bullish
If price falls to low levels (speaker mentioned ~$40), it could represent a re-entry opportunity given data center demand.
Bearish
Recent surprise weakness and volatility reflect sensitivity to data center cycles and execution risks.
TSLA
Bullish
Longer‑term automation and Optimus initiatives could materially expand TAM and cost structures.
Bearish
Full‑self driving and robotics execution risks could impact future expectations.
AMZN
Bullish
Logistics, AWS margin expansion, and robotics/AI could drive operating margins toward 20% and massive free cash flow.
Bearish
Large capex and scale create execution complexity; robotics could face social/political backlash.
ZM
1 price targets
100
Bullish
Enterprise telephony, AI note‑taking and new suites could drive an inflection and a re‑rating from current low multiples.
Bearish
Video commoditization narrative has pressured the stock and growth has been mid‑single digits.
NVDA
Bullish
Core beneficiary of OpenAI/data center demand; key infrastructure provider driving large market cap gains.
Bearish
Extremely high expectations price in significant AI adoption; concentration risk if AI hype cools.
ORCL
Bullish
Oracle’s cloud/data center initiatives and partnerships can bolster long‑term revenue opportunities.
Bearish
Large debt issuance raises leverage concerns and is a bearish datapoint for capital structure.
INTC
Bullish
Strategic importance for domestic foundries and national security has made it a candidate for government support.
Bearish
Legacy execution and competitive pressures remain from AMD/NVIDIA and foundry dynamics.
CRM
Bullish
Strong cash flow machine with potential long‑term upside from enterprise software dominance and M&A.
Bearish
Growth and profitability may remain muted near term; consensus sees slow improvement.
KO
Bullish
Could benefit from AI/robotics‑driven cost efficiencies and a narrative that re-rates stable cash flow names.
Bearish
Value/consumer staples may underperform if growth stocks rerate higher.
CVX
Bullish
Energy demand and strategic acquisitions (e.g., Hess integration) can support earnings over time.
Bearish
Energy cyclicality and commodity price moves create execution and margin volatility.
ET
2 price targets
2123
Bullish
Seen as a reasonable energy income play with limited upside but stable cash flow; expected to finish between $21–$23.
Bearish
Midstream names face structural constraints and limited upside beyond a certain range.
TLT
2 price targets
115120
Bullish
If the Fed cuts, TLT could appreciate materially while also paying ~4% yield; target levels mentioned ~115–120.
Bearish
If rates stay elevated or Fed surprises on hawkish stance, long-duration bonds can suffer.
People mentioned
AmitTevisRoySteveJosh BrownSam AltmanTannerMattChrisBernie SandersDonald TrumpKamala HarrisRyan CohenTom BradyTy WilsonPalmer LuckeyDavid SacksChamath PalihapitiyaKen LangoneNancy PelosiStan DruckenmillerJeff WilsonSpencer