Antonio Linares

"Amazon, Palantir and Duolingo Stock Will Make MILLIONAIRES"

Name: "Amazon, Palantir and Duolingo Stock Will Make MILLIONAIRES"
Uploaded: 2025-10-31T16:14:58Z
Description: "As Amazon’s free cash flow (per share) continues to trend down with CapEx going up, one single datapoint caught my eye in the Q3 2025 earnings call. Amazon customers are 60% more likely to buy something when using Rufus. As AI models continue to double their capacity every 6 months (paraphrasing CE

10/31/2025, 4:14:58 PM

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Economic Summary

Amazon (AMZN) reports its AI shopping assistant (Rufus) drives a ~60% higher likelihood of purchase, with 250 million daily active users, MAUs up 140% YoY and interactions up 210%, indicating AI is materially accelerating on-platform monetization and conversion.
AWS/AMZN is aggressively expanding compute CapEx — 3.8 gigawatts deployed year-over-year, additional gigawatt planned in Q4 2025, and capacity targeted to double by 2027 — and management says added capacity is being monetized, showing a tight causal link between AI CapEx and incremental customer value.
If AI capabilities roughly double every six months (Satya Nadella’s framing), companies with proprietary data advantages (e.g., AMZN, PLTR, DUOL, MSFT) could see time-to-value shrink and theoretical earnings power compound nonlinearly, potentially producing multiples of current free cash flow per share over a few years.
Palantir (PLTR) is seeing reduced time-to-value for customers via AI tooling and digital twins, which the speaker links to exponentially rising free cash flow per share as platform value compounds with improving model capabilities.
Duolingo (DUOL) has substantial proprietary learning data (cited ~1 billion exercises/year) and strong A/B testing culture; LLMs are framed as a tailwind that can enable verticalized AI tutors, improving student outcomes at scale and lowering alternatives' costs.

Bullish

Amazon's AI shopping assistant dramatically increases conversion and monetization.
Data-rich platforms compound value as AI capabilities double, accelerating earnings power.
Duolingo's large learning dataset and A/B testing create a durable AI advantage and vertical expansion.

Bearish

Valuations could form a bubble if stock prices outpace fundamentals and investor expectations become disconnected.
Interim/third-party data often misleads retail investors, causing mistimed selling and missed long-term gains.
Widespread inability to reason about non-linear AI-driven growth may amplify volatility and sentiment-driven drawdowns.

Bullish tickers

AMZNPLTRDUOLMSFT

Bearish tickers

DUOLSPOTAMD

AMZN

Bullish

Rufus boosts conversion ~60% with massive DAUs/MAUs and AWS is rapidly scaling monetized compute capacity; AI is accelerating Amazon’s value creation.

Bearish

Valuation could be vulnerable if expectations for non-linear AI-driven growth outstrip realizable earnings.

PLTR

Bullish

AI tools and digital twins shrink time-to-value for customers, driving rapidly improving free cash flow per share.

Bearish

High expectations for AI-driven outcomes risk disappointment if deployments or customer value lag projections.

DUOL

Bullish

Large exercise dataset, strong A/B testing, and LLMs as a tailwind position Duolingo to deliver scalable AI tutors and better learning outcomes.

Bearish

Sentiment can swing sharply on interim data; some users report poor outcomes, creating near-term headline risk.

MSFT

Bullish

Framework referenced (Satya Nadella) that AI capabilities doubling rapidly underpins platform and ecosystem leverage.

SPOT

Bearish

Mentioned as an example of prior competitive fears that misread marginal UX advantages; vulnerable to sentiment-driven mispricings.

AMD

Bearish

Cited as an example of past deep drawdowns from which patient investors missed subsequent major gains.

People mentioned

Andy JassySatya Nadella