I Could Bet my Grandma on Duolingo Right now.
- The market is conflating a natural, cyclical slowdown in DAU growth with ChatGPT-driven disruption; Duolingo (DUOL) management says retention remains strong, and past slowdowns (Q2 2021) preceded major rebounds.
- Duolingo's proprietary dataset — reportedly ~1 billion exercises solved per day — is framed as a 21st-century moat that enables superior AI models and long-term value creation for the education market (DUOL).
- Free cash flow margin has trended materially higher vs. 2021 (from near zero to much higher levels by 2024), showing improved cash conversion and disciplined management; management guided to ~29% adjusted EBITDA margin for the year, suggesting limited near-term financial impact from prioritizing teaching quality.
- Large proprietary data moat (reported ~1 billion exercises/day) enables superior AI-trained learning experiences.
- Management excels at A/B testing and metric-driven focus, repeatedly driving DAU and monetization improvements.
- Improving free cash flow margins and strong cash generation demonstrate durable business economics.
- Product changes like the energy feature increased bookings and DAUs, validating execution.
- Market is overfitting ChatGPT disruption fears onto Duolingo, creating downside pressure.
- DAU (daily active user) slowdowns can recur when company shifts focus away from growth.
- AI advances have already disrupted education incumbents (e.g., Chegg), posing competitive risk.
- Prioritizing teaching quality and outcomes could temporarily slow monetization or near-term growth.