Antonio Linares

Hims is Moving Towards a "Palantir Moment."

Name: Hims is Moving Towards a "Palantir Moment."
Uploaded: 2025-11-04T15:50:54Z
Description: Hims is moving towards an event-horizon in which there is no boundary between healthcare verticals. Once Hims perfectly understands what is happening in your body at the molecular level (via testing) and is thus able to insert molecules of specific shapes to prevent illness, there are no healthcare

11/4/2025, 3:50:54 PM

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Economic Summary

HIMS is reinvesting heavily (CapEx) and management says cash from operations and free cash flow per share are trending up, implying scale economics as the platform grows (HIMS).
The cost of diagnostics and the cost of 'intelligence tokens' (AI computation/insights) are declining rapidly, enabling marginal‑cost personalization and increasing lifetime value per subscriber.
Regulatory changes that unblock peptide access could materially expand consumer adoption; demand already exists in underground markets, making policy shifts likely over time.
The speaker frames the opportunity as a massive TAM and subscription moat: network effects + neural nets applied to molecular diagnostics could produce an 'event horizon' re‑rating analogous to Palantir/AI hardware platform stories.

Bullish

Vertically integrated molecular diagnostics plus therapeutics can create a massive subscription business.
Falling costs of diagnostics and AI 'intelligence tokens' enable cheap personalization at scale.
Management execution: CapEx increases correlated with rising cash from operations and FCF trends.
Network effects plus neural nets could drive an event‑horizon re-rating similar to Palantir.

Bearish

Regulatory risk around peptides could limit or delay commercialization.
Clinical efficacy and safety of peptide-based personalization remains uncertain.
Large CapEx programs can depress near-term free cash flow.
High expectations risk investor disappointment if adoption lags.

Bullish tickers

HIMSPLTRNVDAAMD

Bearish tickers

HIMS

Bullish

Building a vertically integrated molecular diagnostics and therapeutics network; CapEx appears to drive higher cash generation and could enable a high-value subscription longevity service.

Bearish

Regulatory uncertainty around peptides, clinical efficacy questions, and heavy CapEx could pressure near-term cash flow and execution risk exists.

PLTR

Bullish

Used as an analogy: a company can reach an 'event horizon' with network effects and rapid re‑rating as penetration accelerates.

Bearish

Palantir took decades to realize its market position; analogous expectations may be premature and subject to long timelines.

AMD

Bullish

Cited as an example where analysts missed underlying platform advantages, illustrating how technology inflections can be underappreciated.

Bearish

Mentioned only as an analogy for hardware/platform competition; not central to the healthcare thesis.

NVDA

Bullish

Serves as the platform benchmark demonstrating how dominant compute platforms enable rapid value creation for AI-driven businesses.

Bearish

Referenced as a benchmark platform in AI hardware; relevance is illustrative rather than direct to the healthcare thesis.

People mentioned

Andrew