Antonio Linares

I Was Wrong About UiPath.

Name: I Was Wrong About UiPath.
Uploaded: 2025-09-29T14:53:29Z
Description: In this episode, Antonio Linares reviews UiPath's Q2 fiscal year 2026 earnings report, reflecting on his previous assessment of the company and the emergence of key man risk with CEO Daniel Dines. He discusses the implications of management focus on company performance, the challenges faced by UiPat

9/29/2025, 2:53:29 PM

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Economic Summary

UiPath (PATH) is now producing operating cash and free cash flow, which if sustained should flow to net income and support valuation upside.
Product launches—semantic automation (IXP), Maestro orchestration, and Data Fabric—could increase revenue and margin capture by enabling customers to automate unstructured workflows.
Customer quality is improving: counts of customers with >$100k and >$1M ARR are rising, indicating stronger enterprise adoption.
Retention has softened: dollar-based net retention fell from ~115% to 108%, implying slower expansion revenue per existing customer and execution risk for PATH.
Valuation context: PATH trading at just over 4x sales means successful execution could be highly asymmetric, but poor execution amplifies downside.
Broader point: the speaker favors betting on U.S. innovation ecosystems, arguing American companies produce higher degrees of scalable innovation.

Bullish

UiPath launched semantic automation (IXP), Maestro, and Data Fabric, enabling new revenue streams.
Company now producing cash and free cash flow, which could accrete to the bottom line.
Customer momentum: counts of >$100k and >$1M ARR customers are rising.
Trading just over 4x sales presents asymmetric upside if execution resumes.
Data-advantage thesis: proprietary data + plugging in new models could boost margins.

Bearish

Key-man risk: founder/management lost focus, threatening execution and strategy continuity.
Declining dollar-based net retention (115% → 108%) signals weaker customer expansion/upsell.
Execution uncertainty makes current valuation risky despite product launches.

Bullish tickers

PATHCRWDDUOLSPOT

Bearish tickers

PATH

Bullish

Launched IXP semantic automation, Maestro, and Data Fabric; rising >$100k/$1M ARR customers, generating free cash flow, trades ~4x sales.

Bearish

Founder/management focus diminished; key-man risk and falling dollar-based net retention (108%) threaten growth.

CRWD

Bullish

Praised as a model: lightweight agents drive faster deployment, more data, stronger AI, and free cash flow generation.

DUOL

Bullish

Cited as an example of a management team whose statements the speaker trusts for credibility.

SPOT

Bullish

Mentioned as another example of a trusted management team with credible execution.

People mentioned

Daniel DinesHashim Gupta