Antonio Linares

"IREN, RocketLab, ASTS and Abcellera Are the New Teslas"

Name: "IREN, RocketLab, ASTS and Abcellera Are the New Teslas"
Uploaded: 2025-10-21T13:30:38Z
Description: In this conversation, Antonio Linares discusses the operational blueprint that he believes will drive the next wave of American industry, referred to as American Industry 2.0. He highlights the success of companies like Tesla and AMD as prime examples of this blueprint, which focuses on achieving th

10/21/2025, 1:30:38 PM

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Economic Summary

Rising rates and higher cost of money have pressured consumer affordability (notably cars), but platform efficiency gains can offset demand weakness for dominant players like TSLA.
Companies following the 'AMD/Tesla' operational blueprint — strong founder-operators, hard-to-replicate initial platforms, and data flywheels — can convert top-line growth into disproportionately higher bottom-line outcomes over time (examples: RKLB's Neutron, ABCL's trials).
Investor sentiment is amplifying share price moves: narratives can drive extreme volatility in early-stage platform companies, meaning valuations may diverge from near-term free cash flow metrics.

Bullish

Operational blueprint + founder-operators can create unreplicable data flywheels and monopoly outcomes.
Rocket Lab's Neutron should lift top line and drive much higher margins.
Platform plays (e.g., AMD, AbCellera) can scale inference/personalized chips or biological pathways with large addressable markets.

Bearish

Many basket companies are not yet profitable and remain science-project-like, risking capital if growth slows.
Stock moves are narrative-driven and can reverse violently; prices may drop sharply if enthusiasm wanes.
Higher cost of money reduces end-market affordability (e.g., cars), pressuring demand for some names.

Bullish tickers

TSLAAMDRKLBRIVNASTSABCLIRON

Bearish tickers

TSLAAMDRIVNRKLBASTSABCLIRON

TSLA

Bullish

Autonomy and massive data flywheel position Tesla to become a durable cash machine and monopoly-like platform.

Bearish

Affordability pressures and narrative-driven volatility could compress volumes and hurt near-term multiples.

AMD

Bullish

Platform capable of printing personalized chips at low marginal cost, capturing AI inference workloads efficiently.

Bearish

Stock has traded sideways since 2021 while investing in next-stage growth; near-term FCF may lag expectations.

RKLB

Bullish

Neutron launch is expected to significantly increase top-line and convert revenue increments into strong bottom-line gains.

Bearish

Still a transition-stage business; execution or delays on Neutron could hurt the thesis.

RIVN

Bullish

Part of the operational blueprint cohort with potential for outsized returns if unit economics scale.

Bearish

Early-stage EV manufacturer with profitability risk and sensitivity to consumer demand and financing conditions.

ASTS

Bullish

Fits the founder-led, hard-to-replicate platform profile that can generate unique datasets and long-term advantages.

Bearish

Execution and commercialization risk remain for early-stage aerospace/communications platforms.

ABCL

Bullish

Platform-driven approach targeting multiple biological pathways with very large long-term applications and upside.

Bearish

Biotech trial risk and long timelines; clinical setbacks could materially damage valuation.

IRON

Bullish

Reportedly has machine-level unit economics to 'print data centers,' indicating potential for scalable moat if true.

Bearish

Unclear business maturity and ticker mapping; still operating like a science project with execution risk.

SPOT

Bullish

Cited as an example of the Costco-algorithm style winner that achieved large-scale returns.

Bearish

Subscription businesses remain sensitive to churn and content costs.

HIMS

Bullish

Example of a firm that benefited from discoverable operational patterns (Costco algorithm analogy).

Bearish

Consumer health margins and growth depend on sustained subscriber acquisition.

COST

Bullish

Used as an exemplar 'Costco algorithm' that underpins several successful picks.

Bearish

Large retailers can face margin pressure from competition and macro slowdowns.

PLTR

Bullish

Cited as a company that entered the 'fortune creation zone' in 2022 after platform effects kicked in.

Bearish

Government and enterprise contract timing can cause revenue volatility.

NFLX

Bullish

Historical example of a delayed but massive winner driven by durable platform effects.

Bearish

Mature streaming faces competitive content costs and subscriber churn risks.

People mentioned

Lisa Su