Antonio Linares
New AI BREAKTHROUGH: Big Things are Coming For Palantir, AMD, Tesla and Duolingo Shareholders.
10/22/2025, 2:56:17 PM
Economic Summary
- The paper shows LLMs improving at mathematical, optimization-style reasoning, which could let AI directly automate organizational optimization and increase corporate free cash flow per share for adopters like PLTR, AMD, DUOL, TSLA, NVDA, and META.
- Rising ROI on AI CapEx is driving more spending on chips, data centers, and compute; that cycle increases top-line and margin benefits, sustaining demand for semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks (AMD, NVDA).
- Advances in math-enabled AI unlock productivity in sciences (biology, chemistry), implying more compute directed at biotech problems (mentioned Immunity Bio), potentially accelerating R&D efficiency but requiring continued compute investment.
Bullish
- AI (LLMs) will accelerate companies' value-creation and free cash flow per share.
- Firms that are AI enablers or adopters (AMD, NVDA, PLTR, DUOL, TSLA, META) benefit from higher AI CapEx ROI.
- Marginal product improvements (e.g., Duolingo) can produce exponential adoption in network effects.
Bearish
- The model's apparent math ability could be a fake out and not reflect true comprehension.
- Current models require frequent corrections, limiting immediate autonomous deployment.
- Continually moving AGI frontier may delay durable, measurable free cash flow gains.
Bullish tickers
PLTRAMDDUOLTSLANVDAMETA
Bearish tickers
PLTRAMDDUOLTSLANVDAMETAIMMUNITYBIOPANOPLY
PLTR
Bullish
Autonomous-organization productization could drive large efficiency gains and higher free cash flow if models mature.
Bearish
Autonomy thesis may be premature if models are still error-prone; value gains could be overstated.
AMD
Bullish
Higher ROI on AI CapEx increases demand for chips, benefiting AMD revenue and margins.
Bearish
If AI math capabilities stall, AI CapEx growth could slow, limiting chip demand upside.
DUOL
Bullish
Better AI-driven teaching yields marginally better outcomes per dollar and can drive exponential user adoption.
Bearish
Improvements may be incremental or fail to convert to durable monetization.
TSLA
Bullish
Fundamental AI adoption can accelerate productivity and product improvements, supporting higher cash flows.
Bearish
Autonomy and AI benefits could be overhyped if models need substantial correction and oversight.
NVDA
Bullish
Continued AI improvements raise ROI on compute, sustaining strong demand for NVIDIA GPUs.
Bearish
A false signal in model capability could slow the current AI CapEx cycle and chip demand.
META
Bullish
AI-enhanced products make apps more engaging, boosting top-line and margins.
Bearish
If addiction/ad engagement gains from AI plateau, ad revenue upside may be limited.
IMMUNITYBIO
Bullish
Math-enabled AI unlocking molecular modeling could accelerate R&D productivity in companies like Immunity Bio.
Bearish
Biotech breakthroughs require far more compute and validation; expectations may be premature.
PANOPLY
Bullish
Software that better allocates resources via AI could materially improve firm-level optimization and cash flows.
Bearish
Product claims around resource allocation automation may be overstated until models prove reliable.
People mentioned
Diaz