Antonio Linares
Not Buying IREN Was a Mistake.
11/3/2025, 1:56:33 PM
Economic Summary
- Rapid AI scaling (doubling capabilities frequently) implies exponentially growing demand for compute, energy, and data-center capacity, potentially creating supply-side bottlenecks and resource gluts.
- A company that can efficiently convert capital into data centers (referred to as IRON) could capture disproportionate value if AI scaling laws continue, implying a multi-decade runway.
- Pure software businesses (examples: PLTR, DUOL) benefit from low friction distribution and can scale rapidly alongside AI advances, producing recurring fortune-creating opportunities.
- Investing in hypergrowth winners matters more than picking the exact leader; historical examples (NVDA/AMD) show that owning a dominant player in a hot area typically yields large gains, but volatility and multi-year drawdowns (NFLX example) remain important considerations.
Bullish
- IRON appears to uniquely convert capital into data centers, offering a long runway if AI scaling persists.
- Pure software plays like PLTR and DUOL should benefit massively from AI improvements and low distribution friction.
- Owning a winner in a hypergrowth sector (e.g., NVDA or AMD historically) can produce outsized long-term returns.
Bearish
- AI-driven demand could create resource bottlenecks (energy, data centers) that squeeze margins and cap growth.
- Market pessimism around some software names (e.g., DUOL) could persist and pressure multiples.
- Growth stocks can abruptly reset (e.g., NFLX fell ~70% in 2022), implying large drawdowns are possible.
Bullish tickers
IRONPLTRDUOLNVDAAMD
Bearish tickers
IRONDUOLNFLX
IRON
Bullish
Unique ability to convert capital into data centers; long runway if AI scaling continues, potentially capturing outsized infrastructure demand.
Bearish
Exposure to infrastructure cycles, potential capital intensity, and risks if AI demand growth slows or resource bottlenecks resolve.
PLTR
Bullish
Pure software/AI exposure positions it to benefit from improved AI capabilities and enterprise demand.
Bearish
Execution and market skepticism could limit near-term multiple expansion despite AI tailwinds.
DUOL
Bullish
Software business with low distribution friction; demonstrated rapid monetization in verticals (e.g., chess), long-term upside.
Bearish
Current market pessimism and narratives disconnected from value could keep the stock under pressure.
NFLX
Bullish
Historically dominant growth performer when fundamentals align with market expectations.
Bearish
Example of how high-quality growth names can suffer severe drawdowns (declined ~70% in 2022).
NVDA
Bullish
Representative example of a hypergrowth winner in semiconductors benefiting from AI demand.
Bearish
Competition and cyclicality in semiconductors could pose risks despite strong positioning.
AMD
Bullish
Another beneficiary of secular AI/compute trends and competition in the semiconductor space.
Bearish
Market share battles and execution risks could limit upside in some cycles.
SPOT
Bullish
High-profile consumer software/streaming name with growth catalysts around product and monetization.
Bearish
Earnings can be volatile and sensitive to user/monetization narratives.
HIMSS
Bullish
Mentioned as a holding the speaker felt was validated as a multi-bagger.
Bearish
Unclear public-company positioning or market validation compared with peers.