Antonio Linares

"This is Probably the Next 100X Stock"

Name: "This is Probably the Next 100X Stock"
Uploaded: 2025-10-15T17:09:42Z
Description: In this conversation, Antonio Linares discusses the investment potential of HelloFresh, highlighting its unique market position, supply chain efficiency, and the challenges it faces in customer retention and market perception. He emphasizes the company's potential for significant growth, particularl

10/15/2025, 5:09:42 PM

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Economic Summary

HelloFresh (HLF) is trading at roughly 0.15x sales, implying 30–40x potential multiple expansion if growth/valuation re-rate.
Cash from operations and free cash flow per share have started to tick up after cost-efficiency measures, though H1 2025 included a meaningful tax refund.
Management shifted focus from pure efficiency to delivering more value per customer dollar (the 'Refresh' program), including menu expansion and product quality improvements that could improve LTV and unit economics.

Bullish

Extremely low valuation (~0.15x sales) implies large upside from multiple expansion.
Efficient, highly scalable perishable-food supply chain with cash from operations and FCF per share improving.
Product and menu upgrades (more options, organic, grass‑fed beef, seafood, packaging) could raise LTV and revenue.

Bearish

Revenue has been flat since 2022, leaving top-line recovery uncertain.
Recent cash improvement partly driven by a meaningful H1 2025 tax refund.
Operational missteps in RTE caused customer satisfaction declines this quarter.
Displacing supermarkets requires extremely high execution and margin performance.

Bullish tickers

HLF

Bearish tickers

HLF

Bullish

Trading ~0.15x sales with cash generation improving; highly efficient, scalable perishable-food supply chain and upgraded menus could boost LTV and margins.

Bearish

Revenue flat since 2022; top-line recovery unclear; recent cash boost partly from H1 2025 tax refund; RTE execution issues hurt satisfaction.

AMZN

Bullish

Used as an example of the level of supply-chain complexity HelloFresh manages at scale.

Bearish

No direct bearish claims; referenced only as a comparable high-complexity supply-chain operator.

SPOT

Bullish

Cited as an example where a strong LTV machine powers shareholder returns.

Bearish

No bearish claims made in transcript.

LMND

Bullish

Mentioned as a recent review focus where LTV dynamics were central to analysis.

Bearish

No bearish claims made in transcript.

RIVN

Bullish

Referenced to illustrate comparable operational complexity to HelloFresh.

Bearish

No bearish claims made in transcript.