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AMD delivers third quarter beat and forecast raise
11/5/2025, 7:42:52 PM
Economic Summary
- AMD reported a quarterly beat and raised guidance, signaling near-term corporate demand resilience despite AI shipment uncertainty (AMD).
- Export controls and licensing are shaping AI chip revenue flows: AMD estimates about $1.5B lost this year from restrictions, but partial Instinct licenses could unlock China sales (AMD).
- Geopolitical policy in China—forcing use of domestic AI chips and removing foreign hardware—creates headwinds for foreign suppliers and reshapes global AI supply/demand dynamics (AMD, NVDA).
- Major AI partnerships (Oracle, OpenAI, U.S. government) have created market enthusiasm and equity momentum for AMD, but the profitability impact of those AI shipments remains unclear.
Bullish
- AMD beat top and bottom line and gave strong guidance.
- AMD received some export licenses for its Instinct AI chips, potentially enabling China revenue.
- Large partnerships with Oracle, OpenAI, and U.S. government amplify AMD's AI market positioning.
Bearish
- China export restrictions could cost AMD about $1.5 billion in lost revenue this year.
- AI partnerships and equity deals haven't yet translated into stronger margins or recurring revenue.
- China is reportedly forcing state-backed data centers to use domestic AI chips, reducing demand for foreign vendors like AMD and NVIDIA.
Bullish tickers
AMDORCLOPENAI
Bearish tickers
AMDNVDA
AMD
Bullish
Quarterly beat, strong guidance, Instinct licenses may enable China revenue, plus major AI partnerships.
Bearish
China export restrictions could cost ~$1.5B and AI deals haven't yet produced margin or revenue proof.
NVDA
Bullish
Leader in AI accelerators with strong demand pipeline, though results pending in next reporting cycle.
Bearish
Faces tougher restrictions and approval delays for some AI chips in China, reducing addressable market.
ORCL
Bullish
Partnership with AMD strengthens its AI cloud offerings and goes to market with AMD hardware.
Bearish
Partnerships may not immediately translate into accelerated chip revenue for partners.
OPENAI
Bullish
Association with OpenAI enhances AMD's AI credibility and potential long-term demand for chips.
Bearish
Private partner; equity deal's impact on AMD revenue and margins remains uncertain.
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