We view prediction markets as an opportunity, says DraftKings CEO Jason Robins
- Near-term adoption momentum for prediction markets is evident, creating an opportunity for operators to participate without displacing existing sportsbook revenue.
- Prediction-market offerings are currently thinner with fewer markets and weaker pricing than full online sportsbooks, which constrains their market share potential.
- Evidence from the UK and Western Europe shows exchange-based betting typically captures low-to-mid single-digit percent of total industry volume, implying limited migration away from sportsbooks.
- Operators see the largest commercial opportunities where regulatory clarity exists—examples cited include California and Texas—so financial opportunity aligns with favorable regulation.
- Near-term momentum for prediction/predictions-like products is strong and they look likely to persist.
- These products can generate real interest and incremental revenue in large untapped states like California and Texas.
- Sharps restricted by traditional books may migrate to prediction markets, creating additional activity rather than cannibalization.
- Kashi's product is described as much thinner and less robust than full online sportsbooks, limiting competitiveness.
- Exchange-based/prediction markets historically take only low-to-mid single-digit market share in the UK and Western Europe.
- Pricing and market depth in prediction markets aren't competitive, so sportsbooks likely retain the majority of volume.