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Anticipating more layoffs through the end of the year, says Andy Challenger
11/6/2025, 6:55:57 PM
Economic Summary
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported the largest October job losses in 20 years, a clear indicator the U.S. labor market is cooling and layoffs are likely to continue through year-end, which may weigh on consumer demand.
- In the absence of timely government releases, reporters, investors, and the Fed use a mosaic of indicators — including Challenger data and Bank of America (BAC) anonymized account/payroll signals — which show cooling but no further deterioration from September to October.
- AI is reshaping hiring: Aura Intelligence finds ~13% of tracked job postings reference AI, signaling firms are both eliminating some roles and conducting precise hiring for AI and software roles to boost productivity.
Bullish
- 13% of tracked job postings mention AI, indicating growth in AI-related roles.
- Firms are doing precise, targeted hiring for tech skills despite broader layoffs.
- Some companies' stocks get a bump after announcing layoffs, rewarding cost-cutting moves.
Bearish
- Challenger data shows highest October job losses in 20 years, signaling the labor market is cooling and layoffs will continue.
- Wall Street appears to reward companies announcing layoffs, potentially masking deeper employment weakness.
- Overall job postings fell through October, suggesting weaker hiring momentum before month-end spikes.
Bullish tickers
AURA INTELLIGENCE
Bearish tickers
CHALLENGER GRAY & CHRISTMASBAC
BAC
Bullish
BofA's anonymized data showed no worsening from September to October, suggesting some near-term resilience in paychecks.
Bearish
BofA account-level data highlights cooling payroll signals that could pressure consumer spending and related sectors.
AURA INTELLIGENCE
Bullish
Aura's data shows 13% of job postings reference AI and reflects targeted hiring for AI and productivity roles.
Bearish
AI adoption tracked by Aura could contribute to job displacement in certain roles as firms automate tasks.
CHALLENGER GRAY & CHRISTMAS
Bullish
Provides timely layoff metrics that help markets and policymakers identify labor trends and adjust expectations.
Bearish
Their report of the highest October job losses in 20 years signals sustained layoffs and labor-market weakening.
People mentioned
Andy ChallengerEvan SohnSteve LeismanDominic