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Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood: Tesla CEO Elon Musk deserves his pay package
11/6/2025, 1:04:53 PM
Economic Summary
- Tesla's shareholder vote on Elon Musk's compensation is expected to pass per prediction markets, but a minority could still oppose; the package is defended as pay-for-performance that ties CEO pay to long-term outcomes.
- ARK Invest projects a 2030 Tesla price target of 2600, with roughly 90% of that valuation dependent on a successful robo-taxi rollout and scaling.
- ARK believes Musk must deliver ~41% compound annual EBITDA growth for 10 years to justify the pay package and rarefied valuation implied by current targets (Tesla: TSLA).
- Humanoid robots are considered much more complex and are not significantly priced into ARK's 2600 target; faster-than-expected robot progress would raise the target.
- On AI geopolitics, the U.S. is judged to be ahead but China is moving quickly—leveraging open-source models and strong state direction—placing it within competitive range.
Bullish
- Pay-for-performance aligns Musk with long-term value creation.
- Robo-taxis drive the majority of Tesla's valuation thesis.
- Tesla positioned as robotics, energy storage, and AI leader.
Bearish
- Governance firms and some investors view Musk's pay package as excessive or hostage-like.
- Short-term shareholder focus pressures management away from long-term projects.
- China's rapid open-source AI progress could erode U.S. competitive advantages.
Bullish tickers
TSLANVDA
Bearish tickers
TSLANVDA
TSLA
1 price targets
2600
Bullish
Pay aligns management with long-term shareholders; robo-taxis and Tesla's robotics/AI positioning drive most upside.
Bearish
Critics and some governance firms argue the pay package is excessive and could be viewed as holding shareholders hostage.
NVDA
Bullish
NVIDIA benefits from global AI momentum as the U.S. remains competitive in AI development.
Bearish
China's open-source AI progress and state-driven push could challenge U.S. dominance in AI hardware demand patterns.
People mentioned
Elon MuskKathy WoodAndrewJensen WangXi Jinping