CNBC Television
Bitcoin is sensitive to market liquidity, market uncertainty headwinds, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee
11/5/2025, 10:14:44 PM
Economic Summary
- Bitcoin is highly sensitive to market liquidity and risk appetite; recent headwinds included a government shutdown, a hawkish Fed narrative, and Treasury General Account cash accumulation, which together pressured crypto but could reverse if resolved.
- Funding-market stress showed up as a sharp SOFR drop around month-end (window dressing suspected); while worth watching, Tom Lee notes stresses have eased and haven't spilled into credit markets or bank equities.
- Crypto experienced a major deleveraging event (largest on October 10) with subsequent DeFi losses and a Balancer hack, creating ripples that may take a few weeks to fully wash out but so far don't appear systemic.
- Equities (e.g., QQQ/Nasdaq 100) have growing linkages with crypto because market makers trade both; thus crypto volatility can increase equity nervousness, particularly after six straight months of gains when markets may be overbought.
- Valuation context: many AI and MAG7 names are growing at double-digit rates and, in some cases, trade at forward multiples (example cited ~29x for large video/AI names), supporting continued interest though breadth may broaden into undervalued mean-reversion candidates.
Bullish
- Bitcoin bounced more than 3% and stresses haven't become systemic.
- Historical data: Nov often flat or positive after long multi-month rallies.
- AI/MAG7 names show double-digit growth and reasonable forward multiples.
Bearish
- Bitcoin broke below its 200-day moving average amid deleveraging and hacks.
- Funding stresses (SOFR volatility) and Treasury cash build reduce liquidity.
- Stocks may wobble after six straight up months and stretched AI valuations.
Bullish tickers
BTCQQQ
Bearish tickers
BTCQQQ
BTC
1 price targets
100000
Bullish
Rallied over 3% on a bounce, funding stresses have not become systemic, and resolution of shutdown/liquidity issues could turn headwinds into tailwinds.
Bearish
Broke below the 200-day moving average amid deleveraging, treasury liquidity drain, SOFR funding stresses, DeFi losses and a Balancer hack, suggesting short-term pressure.
QQQ
Bullish
Historical patterns show November can build on long rallies; many AI/large-cap names still exhibit double-digit growth supporting current valuations.
Bearish
High correlation with crypto and market-maker flows could transmit crypto-driven volatility; markets may be overbought after six straight months.
People mentioned
Tom LeeKatie StocktonMorgan