CNBC Television
Certain portions of the goods economy are collapsing right now, says Freight Waves CEO Craig Fuller
11/4/2025, 7:10:02 PM
Economic Summary
- Year-over-year U.S. trucking volumes are down about 17%, but retail (local distribution) freight is roughly flat, suggesting consumer-facing goods remain resilient.
- Long-haul freight—which serves energy, automotive, housing, and manufacturing—is down about 30% YoY, reflecting deep weakness in industrial sectors and manufacturing demand.
- Higher interest rates, tariff-related wholesale price shifts, and companies delaying long-term investment are key drivers of the industrial slowdown and reduced freight demand.
- Elimination of the de minimis exemption has reduced parcel volumes, contributing to weaker outlooks from parcel carriers like UPS and FedEx.
- The freight market is K-shaped: affluent consumer spending supports retail freight, while industrial-side employment and volumes tied to manufacturing and housing are struggling.
- Housing demand is a crucial lever: roughly 20% of trucking activity is indirectly related to housing activity, so housing recovery and Fed easing are important for freight recovery.
Bullish
- Retail-focused freight is flat, showing persistent consumer spending in affluent segments.
- A housing market recovery would drive roughly 20% more trucking demand.
- If the Federal Reserve eases rates, industrial investment and freight demand could rebound.
Bearish
- Long-haul freight volumes are down ~30% year-over-year, indicating a severe industrial slowdown.
- Overall trucking volumes down 17% YoY, signaling broad weakness beyond retail distribution.
- High interest rates and tariff-driven wholesale inflation are depressing manufacturing and investment.
- Removal of the de minimis threshold has reduced parcel volumes, hurting UPS and FedEx.
Bearish tickers
UPSFDX
UPS
Bullish
Resilient retail consumer demand among affluent segments could support parcel volumes over time.
Bearish
Parcel volumes have declined and company outlooks have softened, in part due to removal of the de minimis exemption reducing parcel flows.
FDX
Bullish
Could benefit if consumer retail spending stays persistent or if trade flows normalize.
Bearish
FedEx reported a weaker outlook as parcel volumes cooled after policy changes and softer international/wholesale demand.
FREIGHTWAVES
Bullish
Provides high-frequency freight data that helps customers navigate volatile freight markets and identify recovery signals.
Bearish
Founder warns the goods economy is collapsing in parts, with long-haul freight down sharply and industrial demand deteriorating.
People mentioned
Craig FullerDonald Trump