CNBC Television

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: Uneasy about front-loading rate cuts due to limited inflation data

Name: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: Uneasy about front-loading rate cuts due to limited inflation data
Uploaded: 2025-11-06T14:27:47Z
Description: CNBC’s Steve Liesman and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, strength of the labor market, impact on the Fed's interest rate outlook, inflation concerns, and more.

11/6/2025, 2:27:47 PM

View channel Watch on YouTube

Economic Summary

The Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicator aggregates 11 private-sector sources to substitute for missing government data during the shutdown, estimating the unemployment rate at about 4.36% for October with a 40% probability it's higher and 20% probability it's lower.
Most private-sector labor indicators show stability in hiring, layoffs, and vacancies, but total payroll job creation has notably deteriorated — a signal that should be treated cautiously given uncertainty around immigration and population growth effects.
The labor market exhibits a low-hiring, low-firing pattern consistent with elevated uncertainty among firms; historically this combination is unusual for recession starts and makes dating business-cycle turning points harder.
The government shutdown creates an asymmetry: timely private signals give a quick read on labor-market changes, while official inflation statistics are delayed, raising the risk of misjudging inflation trends and mistiming monetary policy easing.
Macro backdrop remains mixed-positive: reported strong GDP and consumer spending bolster resilience, though accelerated productivity or technology adoption could reduce short-run hiring without reflecting a traditional cyclical downturn.

Bullish

Chicago Fed indicator estimates unemployment roughly unchanged at 4.36% in October.
Hiring, layoff, and vacancy rates from private signals show broad stability.
GDP and consumer spending remain strong, supporting labor demand.

Bearish

Payroll job creation has materially weakened, signaling potential cooling in the labor market.
Low hiring combined with high uncertainty could presage a slowdown if firms delay spending.
Government shutdown creates blind spots on inflation, increasing risk of mistimed rate cuts.
Uncertainty around immigration/population flows complicates interpretation of employment numbers.

People mentioned

Austin GoolsbeeSteveBarack Obama