CNBC Television
Elon deserves new pay package if Tesla's market cap reaches $8T, says Barclays' Dan Levy
11/6/2025, 6:53:11 PM
Economic Summary
- Barclays analyst Dan Levy says Tesla could justify an $8–9 trillion market cap if it hits operational milestones such as deploying one million robots/robo‑taxis and achieves roughly $400 billion of trailing 12‑month EBITDA, which would be unprecedented and materially increase shareholder value.
- The firm views Tesla's future growth as driven by 'physical AI'—applications like robots, autonomous driving, and robo‑taxis—rather than the traditional automotive business that currently generates most earnings.
- Today’s shareholder meeting will spotlight long‑term growth opportunities and remind investors of the potential upside tied to AI and new product deployment.
- From a fundamentals perspective, Barclays maintains a hold because the stock is relatively full priced, with earnings driven by auto today and flat earnings expected next year absent clearer execution of the ambitious growth plans.
Bullish
- Reaching one million bots/robo‑taxis and $400B EBITDA could justify multitrillion valuation.
- Physical AI (robots/autonomy) could create large new end markets beyond auto.
Bearish
- Stock appears fully valued with limited near-term upside.
- Earnings are expected to be roughly flat next year with negative revisions possible.
- High execution risk for ambitious AI/robotics goals (bots, robo‑taxis).
Bullish tickers
TSLA
Bearish tickers
TSLA
TSLA
Bullish
If Tesla executes on physical AI—deploying one million bots/robo‑taxis and reaching roughly $400B TTM EBITDA—the company could reach an $8–9 trillion valuation, justifying substantial upside.
Bearish
Shares are considered full; earnings are currently auto‑driven with flat guidance and potential negative revisions, and Tesla faces execution risk on ambitious AI/robotics goals.
People mentioned
Dan LevyDomPhilElon Musk