CNBC Television
Elon Musk is going to get his $1T pay package passed, says Big Technology's Alex Kantrowitz
11/5/2025, 8:48:32 PM
Economic Summary
- Elon Musk’s proposed Tesla pay package requires Tesla to reach an $8.5 trillion market cap and ship one million Optimus humanoid robots; if achieved, the package would align CEO incentives with an enormous company transformation, but the targets are extremely ambitious.
- There is growing public pushback on outsized CEO compensation, with retail investors threatening actions (e.g., leave platforms) and firms like Schwab publicly defending their voting decisions, highlighting governance and reputational risks.
- AI spending and valuations are facing increased scrutiny as some strong earnings still led to stock declines; studies show mixed ROI (MIT: 95% no ROI in pilots vs Wharton: 74% reporting returns), implying uneven adoption and a bumpy path to profitable scale.
- OpenAI remains a focal point for AI economics: despite large user numbers (cited 800M weekly active users), forecasts include very large cumulative losses (example cited: $120 billion by 2029), underscoring long-term investment risk.
Bullish
- If Elon hits the milestones, Tesla could be transformed into a far more valuable company.
- AI is a real technology with eventual ROI for many adopters, despite being uneven and bumpy.
- Smaller, faster-adopting companies may see stronger AI returns than large incumbents.
Bearish
- Retail backlash over massive CEO pay could damage Tesla sentiment and platform relations.
- AI hype may be overheated; some AI-related stocks fell despite decent reports.
- OpenAI’s projected multi-year losses raise questions about near-term sustainability of AI investments.
Bullish tickers
TSLANVDA
Bearish tickers
TSLAMETAPLTROPENAI
TSLA
Bullish
If Musk reaches ambitious milestones, Tesla could be materially revalued and shareholders could benefit from transformative growth.
Bearish
Huge, controversial compensation package could spark investor backlash and governance concerns; hitting milestones is far from guaranteed.
NVDA
Bullish
Seen implicitly as a key AI infrastructure winner, making it a benchmark for AI-driven market value.
Bearish
Used as a valuation comparator to show how extreme Tesla’s $8.5T target is (would be ~2x NVIDIA), implying lofty expectations.
META
Bullish
Remains a major AI investor with potential long-term benefits if AI initiatives monetize effectively.
Bearish
Despite decent earnings, the stock moved lower, reflecting heightened scrutiny of AI-related revenue expectations.
PLTR
Bullish
Provides AI and data-software offerings that could capture long-term enterprise AI demand if adoption continues.
Bearish
Reported results but shares fell, illustrating investor skepticism about near-term AI ROI for some firms.
SCHW
Bullish
Defended its decision-making process and may avoid short-term platform dislocation by sticking to its vote rationale.
Bearish
Faced public pressure from retail investors over its Tesla vote decision, exposing reputational risk.
OPENAI
Bullish
Has very large user engagement (cited ~800M weekly users), indicating significant long-term monetization potential if costs decline.
Bearish
Projected large cumulative losses (example cited $120 billion by 2029) raise sustainability concerns for rapid monetization.
People mentioned
Alex KantrowitzElon MuskSam Altman