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Expect Pfizer bid to beat Novo for Metsera, says BMO's Evan David Seigerman
11/5/2025, 11:02:02 PM
Economic Summary
- The obesity market, when including diabetes, is estimated at roughly $130 billion, creating a large revenue opportunity for GLP-1 drugs (relevant to LLY, NVO, PFE).
- Medicare/Medicaid coverage expansion tied to a 'Trump RX' price (reported $149 for the lowest dose) would materially increase patient access and address a key market-access gap for weight-loss drugs, net-net benefiting Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO).
- Novo Nordisk is preparing an oral GLP-1 pill launch early next year with stated ample supply, addressing past supply/demand mismatches from injectables and potentially changing competitive dynamics.
- Competitive landscape shifting: Lilly's Orphoglipron launching next year, and Metsera would give buyers a monthly GLP-1 option versus existing weekly shots, altering product positioning and patient choice.
- Pfizer has regulatory clearance from the FTC for a potential Metsera bid, implying a deal could close quickly and accelerate Pfizer's entry into the obesity therapeutics market.
Bullish
- Pfizer (PFE) could quickly enter the obesity market via a Metsera acquisition.
- Novo Nordisk (NVO) would gain a longer-acting monthly GLP-1 and an oral peptide without food effects.
- Medicare coverage via 'Trump RX' at $149 for lowest-dose widens access, benefiting Lilly (LLY) and NVO.
Bearish
- Novo Nordisk (NVO) shares were cut by more than half, signaling execution and guidance concerns.
- Metsera acquisition could carry valuation and integration risks despite interest from bidders.
Bullish tickers
PFENVOLLY
Bearish tickers
NVOMETSERA
PFE
Bullish
A Metsera deal would give Pfizer an immediate foothold in the obesity market and could close quickly with FTC clearance.
Bearish
Acquisition could risk overpaying or face integration challenges despite rapid regulatory pathway.
NVO
Bullish
Metsera would add a longer-acting monthly GLP-1 and an oral peptide without food restrictions, filling portfolio gaps.
Bearish
Shares have been cut by more than half amid guidance cuts, board issues, and drug execution concerns.
LLY
Bullish
Orphoglipron launch and expanded Medicare access support continued growth in the obesity franchise.
Bearish
Faces increasing competition as other players and potential deals could fragment the obesity market.
METSERA
Bullish
Seen as a de-risked obesity asset attractive to buyers; could unlock significant value given the large market opportunity.
Bearish
Despite interest, the asset still carries inherent clinical and commercial risks that could affect valuation.
People mentioned
Evan David SiegermanDonald Trump