CNBC Television
Going short on AI is an absolute bad idea, says KKM Financial's Jeff Kilburg
11/4/2025, 7:59:07 PM
Economic Summary
- 13F SEC filings are opaque: they show positions but not option expirations or strike details, so notional values can massively overstate actual exposure.
- Buying puts limits downside to the premium paid, so an options position can be a far smaller cash risk than an equivalent short equity position (relevant to PLTR).
- Owning puts faces time decay; being early (as Michael Burry was in the subprime trade) can cause losses even if the thesis is later correct.
- High-volatility stocks like Palantir (PLTR) have expensive options, so hedged structures (e.g., put spreads) may be used to limit cost versus outright long puts.
Bullish
- NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the dominant AI leader; shorting it is discouraged.
- Tesla (TSLA) rallied strongly after past bearish calls, showing resilience.
Bearish
- Michael Burry's reported puts suggest a bearish stance on Palantir (PLTR).
- Options filings (13F) are opaque — puts could be out-of-the-money and small in premium.
- Shorting AI names like NVIDIA (NVDA) is portrayed as aggressive and high-risk.
Bullish tickers
NVDATSLA
Bearish tickers
PLTR
PLTR
Bullish
Palantir is discussed as an AI-related name but hosts warn shorting AI-exposed stocks is risky.
Bearish
Michael Burry's 13F-listed puts imply a bearish bet on Palantir; options may be out-of-the-money and expensive due to high volatility.
NVDA
Bullish
NVIDIA is described as the 'AI god' with dominant positioning in the AI market.
Bearish
Shorting NVIDIA is characterized as aggressive and likely to be punished given its AI dominance.
TSLA
Bullish
Tesla's strong post-2021 performance underscores its resilience against bearish calls.
Bearish
Past bearish calls on Tesla were proven wrong as the stock doubled, illustrating timing risk for shorts.
People mentioned
Chris MurphyJeff KilburgMichael BurryAlex KarpBrian