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I'd put much of Thursday's selling on the shutdown, says Jim Cramer
11/7/2025, 12:19:35 AM
Economic Summary
- The government shutdown has lasted 37 days, disrupting the flow of official economic data and contributing to sharp market declines (Dow down ~399 points, S&P -1.12%, Nasdaq -1.90%), which can freeze corporate and investor decision-making.
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas reports job cuts surpassed one million in October, the largest October total since 2003, with firms citing cost-cutting and AI as drivers—this indicates broader corporate retrenchment risk.
- Private payroll and hiring indicators from ADP, Paychex (PAYX), and Paycom (PAYC) show weak hiring activity; these firms' internal charts suggest employers are reluctant to add staff, reinforcing signs of labor market softening.
Bullish
No bullish cases captured.
Bearish
- Prolonged 37-day government shutdown is roiling markets and freezing decision-making.
- Job cuts topped one million in October, the highest October total since 2003.
- Payroll processors (ADP, PAYX, PAYC) show weak hiring trends, signaling labor market cooling.
Bearish tickers
ADPPAYXPAYC
ADP
Bearish
ADP's payroll data/charts indicate slowing hiring and weaker payroll activity amid cost-cutting.
PAYX
Bearish
Paychex (PAYX) payroll trends look weak, reflecting reduced hiring and workforce cuts.
PAYC
Bearish
Paycom (PAYC) charts show deteriorating hiring trends, signaling employers pulling back on staffing.
People mentioned
Jim Kramer