CNBC Television
Jim Cramer shares his take on whether the bulls have won the war on sentiment
11/6/2025, 5:29:09 PM
Economic Summary
- The Fed funds rate rose from roughly 0.5% to about 5% in a year, yet since the October bottom the market hasn't experienced the expected severe decline, suggesting resilience despite rapid tightening.
- Short‑term yields and cash returns have surged — the speaker notes an Apple savings account paying 4.15% — which makes cash an attractive alternative to stocks but hasn't halted the market rally.
- Major banks (Wells Fargo, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Charles Schwab) posted solid quarters with healthy lending across commercial real estate, auto, and home loans, implying limited systemic banking stress so far.
- A large portion of 2021 IPOs and post‑SPAC companies have collapsed (about half of recent post‑SPACs trading below $2 per Renaissance Capital), highlighting severe losses in that cohort.
- Media and commentators focus on the recession narrative, causing fresh positive data to be interpreted pessimistically and keeping many investors sidelined.
Bullish
- Major banks reported strong quarters, undermining fears of broad banking stress.
- Market repeatedly rebounds after intraday selloffs, extending the bull since October.
- Merck takeover of Prometheus generated sizable gains, showing M&A can create outsized returns.
- Rising rates have not yet caused widespread defaults or layoffs; economy showing resilience.
Bearish
- Rapid Fed rate hikes could eventually trigger a deep market decline if tightening persists.
- Many 2021 IPOs and post‑SPAC companies collapsed, leaving numerous shares trading very low.
- High cash yields (e.g., attractive savings rates) reduce incentives to hold volatile equities.
- Persistent recession narrative causes commentators to interpret positive data as warning signs.
Bullish tickers
AAPLMRKWFCCJPMSCHWPROMETHEUS BIOSCIENCE
Bearish tickers
WRBYBIRDWEBERSGPOST-SPACS
AAPL
Bullish
Apple's consumer financial product cited as competitive and indicative of company strength beyond hardware.
Bearish
Apple's promotional 4.15% savings offering highlights attractive cash yields that can draw assets away from equities.
MRK
Bullish
Merck's takeover bid for Prometheus produced large gains, an example of M&A creating shareholder windfalls.
Bearish
No specific bearish points in transcript regarding Merck.
WFC
Bullish
Reported an excellent quarter with no major lending deterioration, undermining banking crisis fears.
Bearish
Concerns earlier that bank stress could force support, driving share weakness.
C
Bullish
Citigroup reported solid results and lending remained healthy across key categories.
Bearish
Banking crisis fears had pressured bank stocks broadly.
JPM
Bullish
JPMorgan posted strong quarter results, signaling resilience in the banking sector.
Bearish
JPMorgan shares were swept into broader banking worries during the mini crisis.
SCHW
Bullish
Schwab reported a pretty good quarter and no catastrophic deposit outflows, though buybacks were paused.
Bearish
Charles Schwab's stock suffered despite fears of deposit flight and crisis.
WRBY
Bearish
Warby Parker cited as an example of a 2021 IPO that collapsed post‑listing.
BIRD
Bearish
Allbirds highlighted among 2021 IPOs that became roadkill for investors.
WEBER
Bearish
Weber listed as one of the household-name IPO disappointments from 2021.
SG
Bearish
Sweetgreen given as another example of an IPO that collapsed after debut.
PROMETHEUS BIOSCIENCE
Bullish
Prometheus received a large takeover bid from Merck, delivering substantial returns to holders.
POST-SPACS
Bearish
About half of recent post‑SPAC companies are trading below $2, reflecting widespread failure in that cohort.
People mentioned
Jim Cramer