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Job cuts in October hit highest level for the month in 22 years, Challenger says
11/6/2025, 1:14:59 PM
Economic Summary
- Announced corporate job cuts in the U.S. have topped one million year-to-date, with 153,000 layoffs in October — the worst October since 2003 — including announcements from UPS (UPS), Amazon (AMZN), Target (TGT), Paramount (PARA), and Rivian (RIVN).
- Industry breakdown: government layoffs accounted for ~308,000 YTD, tech roughly 141,000, and services about 64,000; excluding certain large cuts, total announced layoffs fall to ~800,000 but remain above last year.
- Challenger reports announced hiring plans are down about 35% versus last year and expresses skepticism about new holiday hires; drivers cited include AI adoption, softer consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs prompting hiring freezes.
- Data is mixed: ADP payrolls were slightly up and ISM improved while bond yields sold off, leaving the Fed watching job reports as a potential signal for whether to cut rates in December (markets had roughly three cuts priced in).
Bullish
- Some commentators believe the labor market may have hit bottom and could recover.
- AI-driven productivity gains could support firms and justify fewer rate cuts.
- ADP employment data showed a small uptick, and ISM was stronger.
Bearish
- Announced layoffs surged past one million YTD, signaling a weakening job market.
- Major employers like UPS, Amazon, Target, Paramount, and Rivian announced cuts.
- Challenger says hiring plans are 35% below last year, casting doubt on holiday hiring.
- Tech sector layoffs (~141,000) and rising costs/soft spending are driving belt-tightening.
Bullish tickers
ADP
Bearish tickers
UPSAMZNTGTPARARIVN
UPS
Bullish
Cost-cutting and operational adjustments could improve margins over time.
Bearish
Announced large layoffs and potential hit from reduced trade flows and warehousing demand.
AMZN
Bullish
AI investments and productivity initiatives could support long-term efficiency and growth.
Bearish
Named among companies announcing layoffs as consumer and corporate spending softens.
TGT
Bullish
Restructuring may trim costs and better align inventories with demand.
Bearish
Announced layoffs amid weaker retail demand and holiday hiring skepticism.
PARA
Bullish
Workforce reductions could focus the business and reduce near-term expenses.
Bearish
Part of a series of recent marquee layoff announcements indicating industry pressure.
RIVN
Bullish
Headcount cuts may extend runway and sharpen focus on core production priorities.
Bearish
Included in recent layoffs, reflecting capital and demand pressures in EV manufacturing.
ADP
Bullish
ADP's data showed a modest uptick in payrolls, a positive sign in mixed labor reports.
Bearish
Employment gains were small and may not offset large announced layoffs elsewhere.
People mentioned
Steve LeismanAndrew ChallengerAustin GoolsbeeAndrewJoe