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Last night was a 'shot in the arm' for the Democrats, says Evercore's Roger Altman

11/5/2025, 12:57:10 PM
Economic Summary
  • The economy is the top voter issue and President Trump’s economic approval is low (~37%), which could hurt incumbents if economic sentiment doesn't improve.
  • The current government shutdown is producing visible hardship (food bank lines) and risks broader economic and political fallout; a short-term resolution with a guaranteed vote on enhanced Obamacare subsidies (~$35 billion) is suggested.
  • New York’s mayoralty has limited fiscal and infrastructural authority (no taxing power; airports/ports run by Port Authority; MTA separate), implying a new mayor’s policy impact on business and budgets is constrained.
Bullish
  • New York City historically resilient; it functioned under de Blasio and Adams despite poor leadership.
  • Recent state and local wins position Democrats reasonably well for the November 26 off-year elections.
  • A move toward the center (per recent 'Deciding to Win' polling) could improve Democratic electoral prospects.
Bearish
  • Momdani is 34 with no prior management experience, risking early chaos in city government.
  • Democratic Party remains deeply divided between left and center, weakening long-term electoral strength.
  • Ongoing government shutdown causing humanitarian strain and political damage.
People mentioned
Roger AltmanBeckyMomdaniBill De BlasioEric AdamsKathy WildJesse TishAbigail SpanbergerMikie SherrillChuck SchumerAlexandria Ocasio-CortezJohn Fetterman