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Strong likelihood S&P 500 moves toward 6,500, says BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky
11/6/2025, 9:49:22 PM
Economic Summary
- The S&P and Nasdaq have exhibited unusually long streaks above their 50-day moving averages, but internal breadth is deteriorating; Krinsky expects at least a test of the 50-day and potentially a deeper corrective move (S&P context).
- Sentiment indicators show complacency: put-call ratios are at year-to-date lows and NAAIM reported exposure at 100 (the highest since last July), implying limited hedging and elevated market risk.
- Bitcoin's technicals weakened after breaking ~$110,000 support and its tight historical correlation with the Nasdaq made Bitcoin weakness an early warning signal for broader risk assets (BTC context).
- Gold has run roughly 30% above its 200-day moving average—one of the widest spreads in 20 years—and, despite being up ~51% YTD, appears extended and likely to consolidate or test lower moving averages (GOLD context).
Bullish
- Index trend and momentum remain strong, with seasonally bullish November–December ahead.
- Gold is up strongly year-to-date (about 51%), showing significant buyer demand.
Bearish
- S&P breadth is weak with 25% of stocks within 10% of 52-week lows, suggesting downside risk.
- Put-call ratios are at year-to-date lows and NAAIM exposure hit highs, indicating investor complacency.
- Bitcoin broke $110,000 support and is relatively weak versus the Nasdaq, a red flag for risk assets.
- Gold is extended ~30% above its 200-day and likely to consolidate or test lower moving averages.
Bullish tickers
SPXGOLD
Bearish tickers
SPXNASDAQBTCGOLD
SPX
Bullish
Overall index trend and momentum remain strong, and seasonality (Nov–Dec) historically favors further gains.
Bearish
Market internals are weak: 25% of S&P stocks are within 10% of 52-week lows, likely testing the 50-day moving average.
NASDAQ
Bullish
Momentum has been strong and seasonally supportive, which could help sustain gains in the near term.
Bearish
Under-the-surface weakness and relative underperformance, correlated with Bitcoin weakness, increases downside risk for the Nasdaq.
BTC
Bullish
The $100,000 psychological level may attract buyers and provide potential support if price stabilizes.
Bearish
Broke $110,000 support and shows relative weakness versus the Nasdaq, signaling risk-off pressure for correlated risk assets.
GOLD
Bullish
Has rallied strongly and is up about 51% year-to-date, reflecting substantial investor demand.
Bearish
Extended roughly 30% above its 200-day moving average and looks set to consolidate or test its 50-day moving average.
People mentioned
Jonathan KrinskyCourtney