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Supreme Court hears challenge to President Trump's fentanyl & 'liberation day' tariffs

11/5/2025, 4:07:01 PM
Economic Summary
  • The Supreme Court is hearing challenges to President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs; a decision could come by year-end and may affect an estimated $90 billion in tariff revenue if refunds are required.
  • If the court voids the IEEPA approach, the administration still has alternatives (Section 301 and Section 232) to reimpose tariffs, but those options involve longer investigations, notifications, and procedural hurdles.
  • Tariff revenue has helped Treasury receipts; mandatory refunds would be negative for fiscal balances and could unsettle bond markets and equities, with firms like JPMorgan noting potential market volatility from policy uncertainty.
Bullish
  • Administration could reimpose tariffs using Section 301 or 232, though more cumbersome.
  • White House may cite additional laws to preserve tariffs even if IEEPA is struck down.
  • IEPA provided direct presidential control with no caps, which could be defended as legal precedent.
Bearish
  • Supreme Court could strike down IEEPA-based tariffs, forcing roughly $90 billion in refunds.
  • Refunding tariff revenue would hurt the Treasury, worsen deficits, and pressure the bond market.
  • Ruling against the administration would limit direct presidential tariff authority, increasing policy uncertainty.
Bullish tickers
JPM
Bearish tickers
JPM
JPM
Bullish
JPM noted contingency plans and that tariffs could potentially be maintained or reimposed via other legal avenues.
Bearish
JPMorgan desk warned alternative tariff measures could reintroduce volatility and contributed to recent sell-offs.
People mentioned
Donald TrumpEamon JaversScott BesantDavidSarah